Well, Romney won Michigan, and won it fairly soundly. His father was a 3-term governor there, so its not clear if he was really a home-state favorite.
In any event, I've thought for a long time that there is no chance the GOP will nominate Romney, and I haven't changed my mind. I have the courage of my convictions on this one. Feel free to mock me for YEARS if he ends up being the nominee. This isn't a random prediction, like Obama winning New Hampshire, which I got wrong and don't much care about. This prediction reflects a basic belief I have about human nature.
People can spot a pure phony, and really no one likes a phony. And he's such an obvious panderer that even the stupid folk that approve of the Bush administration can see it. And this should, in the end, prevent him from getting anywhere near the nomination. Of course, by my logic he should have fallen so badly on his face that he'd be dropping out by now, and he most certainly has NOT done that. My answer is that this GOP field is so weak (if you don't like McCain overmuch) and he's been so active in the early states, with money and appearances, that he was bound to get SOME support. And in a fractured field with a lot of money, some support will translate into some wins.
Objectively he certainly has a shot at the nomination, though probably not as good a shot as McCain. But I have not wavered from my view that even the GOP will reject such an obvious phony. Bryan in Raleigh has pointed out that while he may be phony he is telling the GOP what it wants to hear, and he is very right. That, I submit, is why he has done as well as he has. I just can't see it pushing him over the top. Its possible he will win. And you, my readers, can remind me of it until the cows come home.
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6 days ago
2 comments:
well, somebody has to win, and the choices are:
Huck: the evangelical with economic policies most republicans dislike
Giuliani - pro choice, cheated on his wife, not exactly a fave of the social conservatives
McCain - Campaign finance reform, spoke out against torture
Romney - Mormon panderer, but has adopted the party line and is spending the $ so everybody knows it
Let's forget about Thompson, Paul, they're not viable contenders at this point.
Looking at the candidates, from the GOP point of view, they all have significant warts. So who do they pick? Well, the economy is becoming a big issue, if not the issue to Republicans. That knocks Huck out. And who does this issue favor? Probably Romney? So while the Republicans may see through his pandering on the social issues, maybe they just don't care because they believe he is the right person for the economy. That's why I think he's viable as the GOP nominee. I also still think it will come down to him and McCain, esp. if McCain wins in SC (thus knocking Huck down many pegs).
addendum
I'm not saying that Romney WILL win, just saying that I think he's a viable contender to win the nomination, right up there with McCain
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