I wrote last week I was pretty sure that McCain would be the GOP nominee. I can update that now; I'm essentially positive.
Now my prediction record is famously lousy (New Hampshire last week fits right in) but I think this is a matter that CAN be predicted. McCain is the only Republican that any voters trust. The movers and shakers are largely refraining from attacking him, very unlike 2000.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7890.html
This fact by itself demonstrates that the hierarchical GOP is starting to do what its supposed to do. There's an old saying that democrats want to fall in love (ask Obama) and Republicans want to fall in line (ask Bob Dole). The falling in line process has just begun. McCain is the least objectionable to the big tent. Romney hasn't lived up and won't -- he's just run as too much of a phony. Thompson never got started (one of the bigger political belly flops in recent years), Rooooody hasn't quite BEGUN his campaign yet, its too late now Rooooody. Huckabe everyone can see aint ready.
Its McCain. And he's the democrats' worst nightmare. By far the most electable of this GOP crop; he'll make sure that the 2008 election is highly competitive. This is very bad for the country; as I've said many times the GOP needs to lose and lose BIG in 2008, so it can begin much needed self-examination. McCain is most unlikely to lose BIG, so that much-needed death and rebirth of the GOP is at best delayed, at worst avoided. Woe is us.
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6 days ago
4 comments:
Danny,
(a)Predict South Carolina.
(b) Why is Romney not viable?
I agree/disagree. One, McCain is looking better and better and has the big mo. If he wins SC over Huck, which is looking more possible than I thought a few weeks back, I think that kills Huck and really puts McCain over as one of the major candidates. If he loses, I don't know where that puts him. It will definitely hurt. But I continue to disagree re: Romney. He won Michigan. Yeah, he had a home field advantage. But he still won, and now has two wins, two seconds, and lots of money, and the most delegates (even if it's early). I still think he's a formidable opponent, and it's now a McCain/Romney race.
Yeah, Romney is disingenuous. But he still says everything the GOP wants to hear. As much as the GOP lies (see your previous commentary on the economy), he may fit right in with them.
As an American, I'm really hoping McCain wins. I may not vote for him, but at least he has some integrity, way more than the average republican. Romney may be more beatable in november, but god forbid he should pull it out in November and we have to call him our president.
Larry:
Can't predict SC-- what do I know? I will predict Thompson does poorly and drops out soon afterwards-- sorry.
Romney isn't viable because he's so transparently a phony. Even the stupid people that voted for Bush twice can spot a total phony-- its something we humans are well equipped to do. And too many people just don't like it. If he ran as businessman Romney I think there was a real opening there. Maybe its not too late. But as pandering super-conservative, "double Guantonimo" Romney? Not so much.
Bryan: You are right on what you say about Romney. I have the courage of my convictions that he just can't win the nomination-- that he's too phony. Doesn't mean I can't be wrong-- but unlike predicting Obama in New Hampshire-- just a prediction-- this one is a STRONG prediction-- you can give me grief for YEARS if Romney is nominated.
As an American I'm desparately hoping McCain DOESN'T win. Yes, he'd be my # 1 choice among Republicans in a vacuum if I HAD to have one as our next president, but its more important for America that the GOP lose big and reform itself. I realize that's unlikely, but its really and truly unlikely if they DON'T LOSE.
I understand your point on McCain and change in the GOP. For me, it's playing to win or playing not to lose. If we're playing to win, I want Romney or even better, Huck, to win the GOP nomination, because I think Hilary/Obama can whup them. But if there is a chance we could lose, I'd rather have McCain as president than other GOP candidate. He doesn't make me taste bile whenever he speaks. I also think that having a presidential election that was a little less partisan could be good. On the other hand, if it gets really partisan, maybe Bloomy joins the race as an independent. Let's hear it for the first Jew president.
As for Romney not being viable, if they GOP can elect, and then re-elect GW, I won't put nominating Romney past them. Also, they might just prefer the phony who tells them what they want to hear (and one with a business pedigree) to the other contenders. Besides, you know the saying, if you tell a lie often enough . . . , it eventually becomes the truth. Romney has enough $ to tell his lies so much, that eventually, the GOP may believe him.
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