Romney will be the nominee.

I've been meaning to put up a post about how certain I am that Romney will be the nominee for a while, but life has interfered.  I'll keep it short.  Its done, over.  Has been for a few months.  Sure he's only polling around 30%, but he'll be the last man standing, just like McCain was in 2008.  And as in 2008, the base will rally around him, this time out of blind hatred for Obama who, to many base Republicans, is pretty much a Kenyan Muslim socialist radical.  One searches in vain to find any of these influences in his policies as president, but never mind.

Anyway, Romney is a done deal.  The huge favorite for his VP choice is Marco Rubio, first term Senator from Florida.  He's Cuban, so there's some hope (mostly vain imo) that he can help secure Hispanic votes.  But he won't hurt with them either.  He will sew up Florida, which leans away from Obama anyway, and that's not a minor detail.  He's young, VERY attractive physically, gives a very good speech and will boost the ticket despite a few drawbacks.

I'll try and post in the coming few weeks about how I see the 2012 general election going.  Cliff notes: Obama a clear but not overwhelming favorite.   An economic lift (oft predicted by yours truly, still AWOL) would be a huge boost, obviously.  As of now I see Obama winning the popular vote by about 3 or 4.  That prediction could change based on economic data, and assumes an economy gathering strength into 2012.  If we go into recession again before election day, however "minor" the recession (which I consider quite unlikely), Romney will win.  But if we are adding 200k-250k jobs/month next year Obama will beat my 3-4 point prediction.

Obama's big speech

Here's what's going to happen tomorrow, when Obama is going to give his jobs speech.

According to tentative leaks today, Obama will call for about $300 billion in "stimulus" spending, much or all of it to be paid for by cuts outlined soon.  Many of these measures, particularly FAST (Fix America's Schools Today) make sense.  And the dollar amount, if all of his proposals were enacted in full (snowball's chance in hell of that!) are enough to matter.

So I'm happy, right?  Not at all.  America has HUGE problems, and HUGE unmet infrastructure needs, as Paul Krugman and others have been saying for years.  America has a HUGE problem with a lack of consumer demand.  These two HUGE problems (coupled with other big problems I don't have time to post about right now) call for huge solutions.  Big stimulus now, reduction of health care spending, and some trims in other spending years from now.  But the current massive budget deficit we are running is not a problem.  In fact, its a godsend.  If the GOP had its way, we'd slide closer to a Great Depression.

Anyway, here's what I expect will happen after the speech.  The markets will not react much because much of his program will not pass, and because any effect is priced in.  The mainstream media will be very impressed with his "bold" plan.  The GOP will deem some of it dead on arrival, but promise a careful consideration of the rest.  And the Paul Krugman wing of the democratic party (the left, which is yearning for far bolder action) will be mostly disappointed.  Krugman himself will probably spin it as a glass half full speech, but I expect much of the rest of the liberal blogosphere will be disappointed.  Again.  If anyone cares.

I'll post my reactions in the days after the speech.

I know I haven't posted in ages, but this story is such a screaming outrage I had to post.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/08/20/tennessee.immigrant.woman/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

This really happened in the United States of America.  The country I love.  Her crimes were being here illegally and driving without a license.  Perhaps they should be prosecuted.  But the cruelty inflicted upon her is a screaming outrage.  As is the dog's breakfast known as our insane immigration laws.

SMH.

Mubarak will go.

Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak will go.  Quite soon.  I expect he won't last next week.  I don't know what precisely will make him decide to give it up, but the most likely cause will be the army telling him his time is up.  He'll get asylum somewhere, perhaps even the US, temporarily.  Obama won't want to put him up permanently, but Reagan rescued baby doc from Haiti, and we would help Mubarak in his hour of need if it came to that.

Follow Gsquare86 on twitter.  She's a (very pretty) blogger in Egypt.  She's living it now.  She can see how this movie ends.

The Egyptian people have HAD IT.  And who can blame them?  30 years of autocratic rule, little economic growth, millions of unemployed, etc.  The people have erupted.  The army is a highly respected institution in Egypt, and they will certainly not go Tienanmen on the people.  And that is what it would take.  This protest is a revolution, it is real, it is not going away, and it will succeed, probably quite soon.