Well, my (modest) pubic is clamoring for predictions. I've been busy, and derelict, but here they are (even though voting has started).
Turnout in New Hampshire will be absolutely astronomical. I don't know enough about the state to predict raw numbers, but whatever the record is for turnout in a contested primary, it will be SHATTERED, absolutely demolished.
The media-fed surge towards Obama is very real. He wins big today, by at least 10 points, maybe more. Hillary isn't quite FINISHED (sorry Uncle), but if I am correct about that big a win, Obama becomes the clear front runner. But the main reason candidates usually have to drop out after losing in Iowa and New Hampshire, a lack of money, doesn't apply to Hillary. She has plenty of money to carry on and plenty of will. So she will. Only if she's clearly beaten after super duper Tuesday (February 5th) would she drop out.
So I say Obama by 10 over Clinton and Clinton by only 4 over Edwards. In fact, a 3rd place finish by Hillary is more likely than a first!
A digression. Historically, candidates are pretty much forced to drop out after poor showings in Iowa/New Hampshire (as Biden and Dodd did after Iowa) because they run out of MONEY. Clinton will not have this problem, as she already has a good deal of money, and can easily raise more, virtually regardless of how she's doing in the primary season. Money is the main reason why the early states are so very important; the votes there give donors an idea of who might win. Why give money to the guy who finished 5th in New Hampshire?
Rooooody, on the GOP side, is trying to defy this whole logic, and focus on what in the end makes a nominee a nominee; delegates. He has a fair bit of money, so his plan was not to kill himself in the early states (odd, as I think he could have competed in New Hampshire, but he feared McCain's genuine popularity there), and save his money and spend his time in the delegate rich larger states who moved their primaries up to February this year, like California and Florida, where he is fairly well known and he thinks he can do very well.
My New Hampshire GOP predictions:
On the GOP side, McCain will win, but not hugely. Let's say McCain by 7 over Romney. His margin would have been bigger, but for the Obama surge. In New Hampshire there are a TON of independent voters. Indys in New Hampshire can vote in whichever primary they choose. New Hampshire has trended democratic in recent years (Kerry carried it, as opposed to 2000, when it went for Bush), and in 2006 the GOP in New Hampshire was wiped out in state elections and in the governor's race. GOP Senator John Sununu will likely lose his reelection bid if he runs. Which is a long way of saying that independents, who provided McCain with his victory in 2000 over Bush, will also give him a ton of votes this time around, but will give a whole lot more to Obama.
As for the GOP nomination, for the first time in this whole campaign, I think I know who the GOP nominee will be. Incredibly, I am pretty sure it will be McCain! My friend Andrew and I considered him as roadkill a long time ago, before the media did. But Romney I never thought had a serious chance, Huckabee is widely seen as not ready for prime time (he isn't), Thompson fell flat on his face, Ron Paul isn't viable. That leaves McCain and Rooooooooody as the last men standing. And McCain has I think more respect in GOP circles than Rooooody. He's a known quantity. If he translates his upcoming win in New Hampshire into fundraising (always a problem for him, not least because he hates fundraising), he's I think the reasonably clear favorite to win the nomination. Rooooooody is still alive and kicking. Romney will go away. Huckabee won't win, and its too late I think for a Thompson surge; the press' characterization of him as not REALLY wanting the job of president seems completely correct to me. So we will likely end the GOP race where it started-- with McCain as a front runner. Quite a turnaround.
Of course, my political prognostication record is famously lousy, so maybe none of this will happen...
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10 comments:
Well, I agree with most of the post, except for one major point.
Dan dismisses Huckabee because he isn't a serious person. I agree that he isn't serious - but I DISagree that the Republican Party will see that as a reason to not support him.
When your goal isn't to govern wisely or well, but simply to treat the national treasury as your piggy bank and the army as your toy, then there is a lot to be said for nominating a NON serious person for the Presidency - if he is electable.
Exhibit A is the current occupant of the office, who was/is a blatantly non serious person, and has been a godsend for the money men who financed his campaign.
Bill Kristol in the Times yesterday was trying to lay the groundwork by which the moneymen can turn to Huckabee - who is much more likely to be a yes man than McCain or Roody are.
I agree with most Danny said,
also S. Carolina polls show
for the 1/26 Dem Primary,
Obama with 42%, Hillary, 30%
Goodbyeeeeeeeeeeee Hilaryyyyyyyyyyyyy
The Drudge Report is reporting "epic" turnout on the democratic side. The New Hampshire Union Leader is predicting that, "More than 500,000 New Hampshire voters, nearly half of the total population, will go into the privacy of voting booths." Not nearly 1/2 of registered VOTERS, nearly 1/2 of the POPULATION. This would break all records and truly be an astonishing turnout. Just astonishing. And will hugely favor Obama.
Danny
(a) do u think Hillary ( Karl Marx)
Clinton would be offered the VP
under Obama?
(b) would she accept it?
Larry:
(a) I doubt it;
(b) I seriously doubt it.
I think Obama will want someone with clear foreign policy experience, and won't want Hillary on the ticket, b/c he won't want the GOP to be able to run against her. My best guess is Joe Biden.
Dan,
Have you considered the possibility of Richardson as a VP over Biden?? I strongly suspect Hillary thinks being VP is worth less than a bucket of warm spit, so she's out.
As to the GOP nomination, who knows. Never underestimate their capacity for lunacy.
Agree that Hill aint gonna take vp.
Richardson is also a possibility. Biden looks more solid and stable.
I am disappointed, Comrade Clinton
won in New Hampshire.
Well, so much for predictions. Hilary wins in a shocker. Can't fault you for that prediction. EVERYBODY thought Obama had it in the bag. I guess the new margin of error for polls is what, 10%? 20%? 100%? Also surprising I guess was how far behind Edwards finished in 3rd place. It's clearly an Obama/Hilary battle, and Edwards needs to go home. It's too early to predict the eventual winner of Obama/Hilary. Obama will likely win SC, Hilary in Nevada, and they'll battle each other until the end.
On the republican side, you accurately predicted McCain's victory. I still doubt his chances as the eventual republican survivor. He got a lot of independents to vote for him in NH, whereas the true Republicans voted for Romney. My question is, what chance will McCain have in states where independents can't freely vote in the primaries. My guess is Huck wins a lot of the states where there are a lot of evangelicals, and Romney or Giuliani wins in the other states. If McCain wins in Michigan, I'll change my mind on that.
Overall, it looks like a crapshoot. Romney has finished second twice and could win Michigan. He has a lot of money and says what the republicans want to hear. A friend of mine calls him "Pander Bear." I don't think he's going away anytime soon. If Giuliano doesn't win big in Florida, he's done. I still think Huck will win in evangelical states, like SC, but will eventually falter because of his economic policies, among other things. If I have to bet on it, I'm still thinking Romney looks like a winner. But maybe that's why I only play penny slots. I'm not much of a gambler.
Bryan:
Thanks for your daily comment quota! Seriously, in 2000 McCain did badly among Republicans but well among indys. This time, according to exit polls, he won both groups, albeit narrowly. McCain did not win on a rush of indys, as everyone expected. He won by doing well among indys and Republicans alike, a potentially significant development.
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