Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Romney will be the nominee.

I've been meaning to put up a post about how certain I am that Romney will be the nominee for a while, but life has interfered.  I'll keep it short.  Its done, over.  Has been for a few months.  Sure he's only polling around 30%, but he'll be the last man standing, just like McCain was in 2008.  And as in 2008, the base will rally around him, this time out of blind hatred for Obama who, to many base Republicans, is pretty much a Kenyan Muslim socialist radical.  One searches in vain to find any of these influences in his policies as president, but never mind.

Anyway, Romney is a done deal.  The huge favorite for his VP choice is Marco Rubio, first term Senator from Florida.  He's Cuban, so there's some hope (mostly vain imo) that he can help secure Hispanic votes.  But he won't hurt with them either.  He will sew up Florida, which leans away from Obama anyway, and that's not a minor detail.  He's young, VERY attractive physically, gives a very good speech and will boost the ticket despite a few drawbacks.

I'll try and post in the coming few weeks about how I see the 2012 general election going.  Cliff notes: Obama a clear but not overwhelming favorite.   An economic lift (oft predicted by yours truly, still AWOL) would be a huge boost, obviously.  As of now I see Obama winning the popular vote by about 3 or 4.  That prediction could change based on economic data, and assumes an economy gathering strength into 2012.  If we go into recession again before election day, however "minor" the recession (which I consider quite unlikely), Romney will win.  But if we are adding 200k-250k jobs/month next year Obama will beat my 3-4 point prediction.