I predict that the GOP will take the Senate tonight relatively easily, netting 8 seats. Most of these elections will not be close, although runoffs are very possible which would, in my view, delay the inevitable.
First, the 3 currently GOP held seats which the democrats could conceivably win. The GOP will hold Kentucky. McConnell will not lose a red state seat where Obama's name is mud. Not gonna happen. Second, Georgia. Sam Nunn's daughter is putting up a real fight. If it were 2008 she'd win. 2012 she might win. Not in 2014, though it won't likely be a blowout.
Third Kansas. I have no idea who will win Kansas. The GOP incumbent is VERY unpopular. The state is VERY red. Obama is VERY hated.
So I see the GOP has very likely holding two and don't know about Kansas. Forced to predict, I would predict the challenger wins and chooses to caucus with the GOP!
The above predictions leave all currently GOP held seats in GOP hands. There is certainly a chance the democrats snag Kansas, but even that won't save them if my predictions are right, as shown below. Assuming the GOP does hold the above 3 seats, it needs to take 6 seats from democrats to gain control.
The GOP will definitely take West Virginia and Montana. The democrats winning either of these would be a MONSTER upset, and won't happen. I further predict the GOP will take South Dakota, though, amazingly, that isn't a sure thing. But if the GOP takes these three seats, and holds the above mentioned seats, it needs 3 more seats to take control.
The possibilities are many: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina. That's 7. Of these, I think the GOP wins all except for North Carolina and New Hampshire. Thus I have the GOP taking 5 seats here, plus the three mentioned in the previous paragraph, for a total of 8.
In a massive wave, there are other democrats that could lose, but I don't think that's likely and I don't predict any further losses.
All in all a disastrous night for the democrats, though, as I will show in a future post, not at all a good predictor for the 2016 Senate elections.
Updating Kentucky’s Odds Of Going Undefeated
1 hour ago