I know its VERY late for my election predictions, but I never got around to it before tonight.
Obama will win. It won't be anything like the margin of 2008, obviously, and some states won't be called until after 11, but he will win.
Of the swing states:
Romney: wins Florida (by about .3%)and North Carolina by about 1.5% (some chance of Obama upsetting Romney in Florida)
Obama wins all of the rest of them: Minnesota (by 8), Pennsylvania (by 4), Michigan (by 10) (blue states won by Gore/Kerry), as well as the true swing states (New Hampshire (by 2), Nevada (by 4), Iowa (by 3), Colorado (by 1), Wisconsin (by 5!), Virginia (by 2), OHIO (by 3.3 or so).
This adds up to 303 electoral votes (270 is the magic number).
If all of my other predictions are correct, Obama could lose OHIO and still win (he would have 285, and could still spare 15).
If you see Virginia or Colorado called for Obama, he's all but a shoo in. In contrast, if both North Carolina and Florida are called quickly, within 1 hour after their polls close, then it becomes reasonably like I am wrong, and Romney might even win.
In the end, its a highly similar election, really, to 2004, with the incumbent at about 50% job approval and a weak challenger from Mass.
The democrats will also hold the Senate. I predict 53 Democratic Senators (counting the new Senator from Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the two independents (after King from Maine wins) who are politically liberal and will caucus with the democrats.
Put another way, 51 democrats, 2 independents, 47 Republicans.
There you have it. Here's hoping my predictions are anything like as good as 2008 (very VERY good) as opposed to 2004 (predicted Kerry by 2.5) and Gore (predicted he'd win, let's leave Florida out of this).
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