In my opinion the combination of events over the weekend in South Carolina and Nevada have turned the GOP nomination battle into a 2-horse race: McCain and Romney, with a big edge to McCain.
In South Carolina, McCain narrowly beat Huckabee. But as was true in New Hampshire, he did poorly among really conservative GOP voters.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7993.html
The problem for Huckabee was that the competitor most similar to McCain, Rudy Guiliani, did extremely poorly, at a PATHETIC 2%, whereas Huckabee's natural competitor, Fred Thompson, picked up 16%. Thompson's most marginal contribution to the 2008 campaign was to wound Huckabee badly in South Carolina, not that it would have mattered, as he would not have been the nominee anyway.
So what happens next?
First, Thompson will very likely exit the race, possibly as soon as Monday. It will end one of the great political bellyflops of our time. When he (finally) entered the race, I told my politically motivated friend Oliver at work that he would either win the nomination or fall flat on his face. I can take some credit there, he has indeed fallen quite flat. Sorry Uncle Larry.
Its a bit of a shame too, b/c Thompson was actually talking about entitlement reform. Not in a way I agreed with, mind you, but at least he talked about it, which is more than I can say for any other candidate of either party, except Ron Paul, who advocates eliminating Medicare, and is thus not taken seriously by anyone.
South Carolina was fertile territory, and he did quite well, considering. But he will not have the money to compete on super duper Tuesday, 2/5, and is thus in my view running for Vice President. Either Romney or McCain would find him a very attractive # 2, so we may not have heard the last of Huckabee.
Thompson will drop out, Huckabee will not have enough $$, Rudy never got started, and likely won't get really rolling with McCain strong (they are competing for precisely the same kind of voter). Ron Paul can't win. That leaves McCain and Romney as the last men standing.
Nothing has happened to change my view that McCain will win the nomination. He is in a very strong position. However, Romney is now running as a businessman who will fix the economy, and Washington. This is a FAR FAR better and more appealing place for him to be than when he was pretending to be the most conservative of them all. He wasn't, he looked phony, and a lot of people saw right through it.
Its a shame that the GOP is in its current awful state. In a more perfect world, McCain would lead an honorable GOP into battle against Al Gore and an honorable democratic party. Now THAT would be a battle royale. Not so much now with the GOP as it is...
PLEASE UPDATE THE RSS FEED
6 days ago
4 comments:
Eliminate Medicare, freak no, just started it in June, neato, with my secondary policy, except for prescription drugs will have no out of pocket medical expenses for
rest of my life, only pay monthly premiums . You working folks can pick up the difference.,
hahahaha.
Daniel, are you feeling ok? Because when you start sounding like me, something's gotta be wrong. :0) I think I said last week that Romney was a viable contender. I noted that republicans "just don't care [that he was pandering] because they believe he is the right person for the economy." I noted his business pedigree. He's finally keying in on that as his message, he's the man to turn the economy around. I'm not saying he's going to win, but I still see McCain-Romney being the final two. I agree that I don't think Huck has the $ and Thompson is soon to be gone. I do wonder how Thompson's withdrawal will effect things, since Huck will get a lot of those conservative votes. If Thompson had withdrawn sooner, maybe Huck wins South Carolina. Maybe Huck should've sent Chuck Norris to have a little talk with Thompson last week, actor to actor. ;0)
Anyway, I digress. I said last week Romney was viable. And I still think it will come down to McCain and Romney.
Oh, and GO GIANTS!!!
Yeah yeah, Bryan, yeah yeah. McCain gets the HUGE edge, but until I see otherwise Romney's the only other guy with a realistic shot. I suppose I could construct a scenario without heart attacks where Huckabee wins, but it isn't at all likely. Once McCain posts a few more wins, a lot of GOP voters will fall in line, noses pinched shut. If Romney were an inspriational figure, someone who excited the GOP, he'd have a shot. But he isn't, and he really doesn't.
one concern I have is that if the economy continues to tank, that Romney really seized upon the issue, paints himself as the only candidate with substantial business acumen, and that the GOP masses buy his message. Another conern I have is if/when Thompson withdraws, those votes go to Huck, and he steals a few primaries in the south. Not enough to win the nomination, but maybe enough to cost McCain. I guess it's possible that Rooooody's late state strategy could work, but it doesn't seem likely. I say he's about done barring a McCain-like comeback. In the end, I agree with you that McCain looks like the nominee. The dems certainly think so from their remarks at the debate last night. In the end, I'm just happy that I beat you to the punch on Romney. ;0)
Post a Comment