Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Senate Predictions:

I predict that the GOP will take the Senate tonight relatively easily, netting 8 seats.  Most of these elections will not be close, although runoffs are very possible which would, in my view, delay the inevitable.

First, the 3 currently GOP held seats which the democrats could conceivably win.  The GOP will hold Kentucky.  McConnell will not lose a red state seat where Obama's name is mud.  Not gonna happen. Second, Georgia.  Sam Nunn's daughter is putting up a real fight.  If it were 2008 she'd win.  2012 she might win.  Not in 2014, though it won't likely be a blowout.

Third Kansas.  I have no idea who will win Kansas.  The GOP incumbent is VERY unpopular.  The state is VERY red.  Obama is VERY hated.

So I see the GOP has very likely holding two and don't know about Kansas.  Forced to predict, I would predict the challenger wins and chooses to caucus with the GOP!

The above predictions leave all currently GOP held seats in GOP hands.  There is certainly a chance the democrats snag Kansas, but even that won't save them if my predictions are right, as shown below.  Assuming the GOP does hold the above 3 seats, it needs to take 6 seats from democrats to gain control.

The GOP will definitely take West Virginia and Montana.  The democrats winning either of these would be a MONSTER upset, and won't happen.  I further predict the GOP will take South Dakota, though, amazingly, that isn't a sure thing.  But if the GOP takes these three seats, and holds the above mentioned seats, it needs 3 more seats to take control.

The possibilities are many: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina.  That's 7.  Of these, I think the GOP wins all except for North Carolina and New Hampshire.  Thus I have the GOP taking 5 seats here, plus the three mentioned in the previous paragraph, for a total of 8.

In a massive wave, there are other democrats that could lose, but I don't think that's likely and I don't predict any further losses.

All in all a disastrous night for the democrats, though, as I will show in a future post, not at all a good predictor for the 2016 Senate elections.