How many votes will Obama and McCain actually get?
I don't mean what percentage of the vote, I mean actual vote totals. I predict Obama will win the popular vote by 9 points, and receive 75.9 million votes, and McCain about 63.3 million. By way of contrast, Bush received 62.04 million votes in 2004, and Kerry received 59.03 million. Here's how I get to this astonishing prediction.
According to someone interviewed by CNN, 213 million people are eligible to vote this year (note, not REGISTERED, eligible to vote).
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/21/early.voting/index.html
I have no reason to disbelieve that number, so I'll go with it.
Turnout was 60% in the 2004 election.
If turnout was the same this year, that would imply that a total of 127.8 million people will vote this time around. This is most unlikely. Turnout will be quite a bit higher. According to the above-linked article the high turnout election of 1960 (Kennedy squeaks by Nixon) had 64% turnout. The CNN article speculated we could beat that number. It wouldn't surprise me if we did. In fact, I predict that we will have a 66 percent turnout, tying the highest mark in American history, which occurred in the 1908 election!
66% of the above-referenced 213 million people yields an expected vote total of 140.6 million!
I have previously predicted an 8-point win by Obama. I now believe that my projected margin of 8 points was too conservative. I am now predicting a 9-point Obama win. Assuming that 3rd party candidates receive 1% of the total vote (its too large a number, but not by a ton and it simplifies things), Obama would win 54-45. 54% of 140.6 million is 75.9 million votes!! (Again, Bush received 62 million and change votes in 2004). I thus predict that Obama will receive 75.9 million or so votes, and McCain will receive approximately 63.3 million.
Obama receiving less than 70 million votes would surprise me considerably, whereas his receiving 80 million votes would surprise me but not shock me.
If this prediction of a high turnout election bears out, Obama will in fact win the 375 electoral votes I predicted recently, and may well win by more than my predicted 9 points. I have drank the Kool-Aid, big-time. Feel free to laugh and criticize if I'm seriously wrong.
I will write up after the election and see how all of my various predictions turned out.
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2 hours ago
7 comments:
Well, Obama wont get my vote, I gave it to McCain by absentee yesterday at the court house, I also voted against gay marriage, so thereeeeeeeeee
I wonder if Larry can explain why in the world he wishes to entrust the gov't for the next 4 years to ANOTHER Republican?
Are you a glutton for punishment? Does disaster-by-design government make you happy?
Or have you psyched yourself into believing that Obama must, somehow, be more dangerous than the morons who turned Clintonian peace&prosperity into war&poverty?
Anonymous,
Obama is too far left for me. He favors higher taxes, more gun control, bigger government and more govt regulation.
I just want the govt to leave me alone.
Anon,
Also Obama tipped hia hand in an unguarded moment with Joe the Plumber, when he said " lets spread the wealth around", the classic expression of Socialists.
Socialism bad? Medicare bad? Social Security (partially socialism) bad? Food stamps (definitely socalisim) bad? Should a hospital refuse to treat someone who shows up with a serious injury? That's socialism. It really is.
It all depends on how you view the role of government. Its easy to crticize the word socialism, but if you actually unpack what it means in practice, I think most of us favor a fair bit of socialism. The question isn't whether we're for socialism, but where to draw the line.
well said Daniel!!!
My responses to Larry:
1. higher taxes?!? wow Larry, can you adopt me? Because if you make that much money that you're going to pay higher taxes under Obama than under McCain, we need to hang out more. I'll even go with you to the shooting range! (and yes, I have fired a gun before).
2. Funny, you want the govt to leave you alone, but you voted for govt intrusion into the lives of gay people. I guess you mean you want the govt to leave you alone, but you don't really care if they leave anybody else alone.
3. Bigger govt? You mean like the way the last 8 years the republicans ran washington?
4. More govt regulation - so you think leaving Wall St. so unregulated for the last 10 years that it led to an economic meldown was a "good idea." Granted, the dems approved a lot of the deregulation as well, but until about a month ago, McCain still though less regulation was a good idea.
Here's something to piss you off. No chance McCain wins in CA, which means your vote for the doddering old man will have little effect. But here in the battleground (OMG!) of North Carolina, my vote and my wife's vote for Obama (and we voted early on saturday) could have an impact.
President Obama - yesssssssssssss
VP Biden - yesssssssssssssss
Fillibuster proof Senate - yesssssssss!
Bryan
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