1: McCain pulls out of Michigan. Last week he pulled out of Michigan. Meaning he would no longer seriously contest the state. He pulled his television ad and transferred his staff to other states. This was a (to me) stunning and insane move. Kerry won 252 electoral votes, only 18 short of 270, which is victory. Michigan was 17 of those. Its a tough year for McCain, obviously, but still you want to take away some of the Kerry coalition if you can, making it harder for Obama to pick up the additional states he needs to win the election. The 2 states which Kerry won which McCain had the best chance to flip, imo, were Michigan and New Hampshire. New Hampshire is still theoretically in play, but has only 4 electoral votes. Michigan has 17! Michigan's economy turned down years ago under an unpopular democratic governor. McCain has been a friend to the auto industry. If I were advising McCain I would have pulled out of Pennsylvania, which will be harder for him to win, and pushed like mad for Michigan. It was and remains a baffling choice.
2: The (so far) unwillingness to use Reverend Wright as an issue--baffling. Now if they're saving it for the final week or two so its salient at the end, that would make sense. It really would. But if they leave this issue out of the campaign altogether, they're insane. Were they counting on the various other groups that advertise on their behalf to do it, so they could disavow it but it would be out there? I don't know what the thinking is here, and there may well have been sophisticated thinking, but right now Obama has built a clear lead and if I were managing the campaign, the next 2 big ad buys would be Reverend Wright related, and he would get a mention in stump speeches, which the media would cover for SURE!
After all the compromises McCain has made on his principles, what's one more?
3: The McCain campaign has spent a fair bit of time and energy on Iowa. This is an INSANE allocation of resources. Its true that Iowa went to Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004, thus is an obvious swing state. But McCain didn't campaign there in 2000 or 2008 because of his vociferous (and brave and very correct) opposition to ethanol subsidies, which is a huge issue in Iowa.
There have been 27 polls covered by realclearpolitics.com in Iowa since November of last year.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_mccain_vs_obama-209.html#polls
McCain has not led in a single one of them, and there is only one tie (admittedly in September). Obama's lead recently is an average of 11.8 points. Iowa also borders Obama's Illinois. I admit these numbers are closer than I would have expected, but I still for the life of me can't understand why the McCain campaign didn't cede Iowa's 7 electoral votes and move on. Even in a close election it seems grossly unlikely that he can win there. I would have chosen to fight harder in New Mexico, Nevada, or even (at some risk of diminishing returns) put more resources into the obvious swing states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado.
4: McCain has had several different messages at once. Obama's risky. I have a new economic idea. I'm a vet. etc. His campaign has been scattershot. Many pundits have criticized him for this, I am merely reporting that, and not contributing anything original.
5) Misuse of Palin. McCain makes a stunning pick of Palin. She roars out of the gate giving a speech for the ages at the Convention. McCain shoots up in the polls on the back of roaring poll numbers from white women, who swoon. The public wonders if she is a fool. She gives 2 interviews. Remember the old saying: better to be silent and thought a fool then open your mouth and remove all doubt? Well, she removed most doubt. But she did ok in her debate. But now she's solely an attack dog. Which of course makes no use whatsoever of her awesome gifts at connecting with people and inspiring them. Can't be inspired by a savage attack.
I realize this is a tough spot for the campaign. They MUST hit Obama and hard to have any hope, and the VP nominee's traditional job is to be an attack dog. And she's 100% into it! But it wastes the one talent she has (her strong ability to connect with ordinary people, especially women) leaving her virtually a 100% liability.
McCain, on the other hand, is lousy when trying to connect with/relate to people. Awful. Worse than Gore or Kerry, which is really saying something. But at least imho, he's pretty effective attacking Obama. I realize this is WAY outside the paradigm, but it may be the best tactic for McCain to be the attack dog and Palin to sell McCain and his "plan." The GOP is having a really tough time connecting with the middle and working class about now, social values are not a big issue these days. Palin's great at it but not doing it. McCain's lousy at it but flailing about trying.
Memo to McCain campaign-- switch their roles. Its your only shot, and will help.
Palin should also be the clear focus of their tv ads. She interests people, even those who think she lacks two brain cells to rub together. They'll watch the ad.
3 comments:
Dan, this is Andrew.
There is a small problem delegating Palin to sell McCain's "plan" - namely that he doesn't really have one!
His problem has always been that, like it or not, he's basically stuck with the Bush plan. He has abandoned most of his more maverick policy positions over the past 2 years in favor of becoming a quite orthodox conservative, particularly on economic issues.
His attempts to slide away from this over the past month or so have been scattershot, not to mention very ineffective.
Really, all he has left as a viable tactic is attack - whether it be Wright, Ayers, terrorist, black, liberal, elite, etc etc.
And while I'm not of a real high opinion of the American electorate, right this minute, with the American economy coming apart at the seams, I don't really think they care what atacks the McCain team finally decide to run with. There is nothing like a 1st rate crisis to concentrate voters minds on what matters...
This is not to mention whether your speculations about McCain - whether he even wants to win, aren't legit.
Seriously, can you think of a single reason why America should send a Repub to the WH after the past 8 years? I sure can't - and McCain, in his heart, prob agrees.
After all, HE knows the nuts that currently run the Repub side of Congress are totally irresponsible even better than we do...
Dan,
I think your 5th point is the most original argument you make, and for that reason the most interesting. I also think its a good argument. However, I'm inclined to agree with Andrew that when the economoy is this bad it wont matter what McCain's campaign says and does. There's too much public attention on that issue.
Justin
I agree with Andrew.
Besides that, "It's the economy stupid", and McCain has failed to articulate a winning plan. He's tried to attack Obama's character; nobody cares. He's tried to "lead"; nobody cares. He says Obama doesn't understand; nobody cares. His economic plan? So far, we hear nothing but crickets. Nobody is trusting him on the economy.
On the other hand, Obama seems to have hit home with his tax plan by keeping it simple. Repeat after me: "no tax hike if you make under $250k." Obama seems to have taken the lead because of a consistent message, whereas McCain's theme of the week approach has cast him as erratic and unreliable.
I think McCain sees a slim road to the WH at this point, and it doesn't include michigan. He's just hoping to squeak out a victory by winning certain key states. Doesn't look like its working. This has been one poorly run campaign, THANK GOD!
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