Flying Pink Unicorns

Why Obama will win.

There are a multitude of reasons why Obama SHOULD win-- i.e., would make a far better president than Johnny Mac. More on those in a future post. Today I want to focus on why Obama WILL win. This article sums it up neatly.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/can_mccain_overcome_the_triple_whammy

In short, the election is occurring in the backdrop of a very unpopular president and a weak economy. Historically, when that occurs, the president's party loses, whether the president is on the ballot or not. 1932 (Hoover got creamed). 1952 (Truman's democrats lose big to Eisenhower). 1992 (Bush Senior loses to Clinton) and 1980 (Reagan landslides Carter). This year, like 1980, sky high gas prices are also a contributing negative factor.

Of course, projecting the past into the future without thought is a common mistake. Here I think the past should hold (but, to remind again, I predicted a Gore victory (confidently) and a Kerry victory (fairly confidently)). Neither environment was toxic for the GOP, like 2008 is. If the GOP nominee were a standard issue Republican, say Fred Thompson, or George Allen (Senator Macaca) this election would be a nearly guaranteed landslide. McCain is trickier to handicap because he does have some appeal outside traditional Republican voters (of course he has real problems among traditional conservatives as a result). Obama is also far trickier to handicap than a generic democrat (say Gore the 2000 model, or Joe Biden). He's new, he has absolutely monumental appeal to millions, but let's face it resistance to a black candidate may be real, and he has serious Reverend Wright and Trinity Church problems. Those problems are because of a widespread view that the values of that Church do not reflect the values of the huge majority of white Americans, which they do not. Of course, if one thinks about it, one realizes that Obama, he of Harvard law review, stayed in that church because he needed the bona fides that the Church helped provide within the black community. Anyone can see that it was a marriage of convenience for Obama who, whatever my dislike for him on policy grounds, plainly has lived the American dream and wants more people to do so.

Anyway back to the thesis of this post: the country is sick and tired of Bush. If he were running for reelection he would have no chance, and would lose in a roaring landslide. McCain's only hope is to be vigorously not Bush. Problem is, he has adopted key Bush policies (war in Iraq, tax cuts for the super-rich, no real action on health care) wholesale. Thus the fact that he breaks from Bush on global warming, pork barrel spending and more will likely be washed away by his conversion to Bush-ism on many huge issues. The country doesn't like the dems. Remember, it didn't like the GOP in 1980! But it had had it with high inflation, high unemployment, gas lines, high gas prices, and Iran hostages. Once Reagan crossed the will he push the button recklessly threshold, the landslide was his.

Similarly, and I'm simply parroting Dick Morris here, this election won't be close. If Obama convinces Americans he's one of us, he wins, and wins medium-sized to big. If he doesn't he loses. Simple as that. The country dislikes the GOP and wants it out of power. It is raring and ready to give the reigns of power to anyone ELSE that is American to the core and will do what's right by us (broadly defined). Obama is highly likely to convince America that he is that guy, thus he's highly likely to win. I'll predict Obama underperforms the historical pattern because of McCain's great strength as a candidate, and wins by 8.