Friday, June 06, 2008

I hate the European Central Bank. A peek at the markets today will tell you why. For background, the head of the European Central Bank ("ECB") hinted yesterday that the ECB may raise interest rates soon.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/05/markets/dollar.ap/index.htm

This is a colossally stupid move. The US dollar has absolutely tanked. This is in part because interest rates here are quite a bit lower than in Europe. Lower interest rates hurt your currency (all else being equal), while higher interest rates help it. The Europeans have become very concerned that the US dollar has become toilet paper as against other currencies, for a variety of reasons. You would think the ECB wouldn't even dream of raising rates right about now.

I hope to hell the ECB is pleased with itself. Ben Bernanke (Federal Reserve Chairman) and I took turns throwing darts at pictures of Jean-Claude Trichet, the President of the ECB. After Trichet had a few more holes in his head (to go along with the ones he obviously had BEFORE we threw darts at his picture), Ben took of the picture and burnt it in his cigar, giving me the ashes to spit on. Trichet overnight became the leading contender for economic dunce of the year. Stipulating that inflation is the ECB's A # 1 concern, stipulating that its about to get a good deal worse in Euroland, and FURTHER stipulating that its always less expensive and less difficult to nip inflation in the bud earlier rather than later, with Ben following my lead in lockstep and openly signaling JUST THIS WEEK that the days of easy money will come to an end, and that Dollar Sheriff Ben is replacing PANIC Ben,

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/03/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

(Just as I said would happen in my post on May 23rd), couldn't the damn ECB have waited 6-9 months, let the US begin taking money out and raising rates, and THEN raised rates along with us if it proved necessary?

Please understand, I am NOT arguing the ECB should not have hinted it will soon raise rates for OUR BENEFIT! By no means! I am arguing they should not done this because it hurts EUROPE.

Remember, the dollar has tanked (past tense) and the Euro is RIP-ROARING STRONG. Euro businesses are squealing like stuck pigs, and they have a case! Even given the strong Euro oil is very expensive in Europe, in no small part because of the parlous state of the US dollar! Couldn't they have waited? Picked up the phone and called Ben (or sent him an e-mail, this is 2008) and told him he has until 1/1 to get his act together or else? Did the ECB really have to get out in front of the inflation dragon like this? Is it really about to be 1978 again, when the UK had like 20% inflation? Take a f***ing look at today's (un)employment report! Ben and I were right, RIGHT RIGHT, damn it. And the ECB is going to make things worse, and make the US digging out of our hole a little harder. Oh, and hurt the Euro economies in the process by needlessly raising rates. There's a double play I could do without.

3 comments:

Bryan said...

for conspiracy buffs, maybe the Europeans care more about hurting us then helping themselves.
Sorry I can't contribute anything more constructive, I'm not the economics expert you are. I did everything I could to avoid taking econ in college. Mistake, maybe. Did it make college more fun, yes.

Larry in Calif. said...

I took one economics course in college, got an A also, still dont know jackshit, will leave all economics matters to Danny.

Daniel N said...

Fair enough folks. Macroeconomics has long been a fascination of mine. I have never taken an economics course, am fuly self-taught. Take from that what you will.