Flying Pink Unicorns

State-by-state analysis of 2008 election.

This post has become ridiculously long. Cut and paste it into an e-mail to yourself and read it in pieces. Make sure to save it or remember to check my blog after the election, so you can either admire my fantastic predictive powers or, more likely, make fun of just how wrong I was. I'm sure to be badly wrong in some of these, but: (a) I'm trying, really reading up and thinking; and (b) hey, I'm writing it all down. When you write lots of predictions, you are wrong a lot. Rule of nature.

I repeatedly comment on the possibility of a close election. After all, that's where the state-by-state thing matters. Don't mistake that for waffling. I expect Obama to win by 8 or more, and am confident in that prediction. I'll let you know clearly when I'm unsure. However, one covers the state-by-state battlegrounds just in case one is wrong and the election IS close. In this post I predict which states will be the battleground states, how much Obama (or McCain) will win them by, and also give predictions for margins of victory in some of the states I think will be blowouts. My predictions are based on my overall prediction of an 8-point Obama win in the popular vote. You need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Larry, don't ask me what happens in a 269-269 tie. The answer is that the house of representatives decides who wins-- with each state getting one vote. They can vote for whoever they please. The newly elected house decides this, not the current one. The dems are almost certain to control more states, so that would almost certainly mean Obama would win.

In 2004, Bush won the popular vote 51-48, 3 points. In my jargon, a state that went for Kerry by 1 point was Blue + 4. That is, the state voted 4 points more for the democrat than did the country (a 4 point swing from the country more precisely). A state that is Red + 4 was won by Bush by 7. This isn't strictly mathematically accurate, as the national popular vote counts that particular state. To be strictly accurate I should rate that state against the country minus that state. In fact, I'm sure this is inaccurate in additional subtle ways as well. But I'm confident that this simple method is PLENTY close enough for all of my purposes, and surely all of yours.

My thesis, not original in the slightest, is that positing a close election a state that was within 5-7 ish points of the national average in 2004 is in play in 2008. But a state with a much wider margin is not. For example, Kerry won New York by 18 and change in 2004. If McCain tried hard to win New York's huge 31 electoral vote prize, he'd fail miserably. Thus he won't try. Similarly, for the democrats to try and flip any of the many states Bush won by 15+ points would be just silly. The states which remain are possible "swing states," where the candidates may put time money and energy. (If the election is a blowout none of the state by state stuff matters, as the blowout winner will go way over 270 electoral votes regardless of this state or that). To take a sample swing state, Missouri went for Bush by 7 points in 2004 it was thus Red + 4 in 2004, and is I think clearly in play this time.

Finally, my predictions below are based upon my prediction of an Obama 8 point victory. If my popular vote victory turns out wrong, you can roughly speaking add /subtract 1 point from the predictions below for every point Obama wins by more than 8/wins by less than 8/loses the popular vote. Again, this isn't mathmatically valid, but it is close enough for all of my purposes. If my 8 point prediction is seriously wrong, this post is going to look awfully silly. If Obama wins by 15 he's going to win a lot of states that will shock a lot of people. Texas, North Carolina, probably Georgia, possibly Mississippi, possibly the Dakotas. And many more. If McCain wins by 2-3 he's going to win an absolute ton of my swing states, and this post will be truly embarassing. Here are the obvious swing states, states that EVERYONE understands that both sides will put huge resources into, together with some states which aren't really swing states in 2008:

1) Florida: 27 electoral votes: Red + 2.5. One of the 2 most famous of the swing states. If the national vote were tied and Florida didn't change its preferences, it would go for McCain by 2, and probably hand McCain the keys to the White House as it so controversially did for Bush. If you haven't been living on Mars since 1999 you know full well that both sides will battle their hearts out in the Sunshine state. I think that Florida will be much tougher for Obama to win than most or even every last one of the other true swing states, though if he wins by 8 he will very likely win it. Florida and Arkansas are the two states I am confident that Hillary would have an easier time winning. She might also have an easier time in Ohio. But nevermind-- what's done is done. Happily, I think Obama can easily win the White House without winning Florida. Still, 27 electoral votes is just enormous. If Obama wins Florida and Michigan and Pennsylvania, he will be sworn in on 1/20/09. Its that simple.

PREDICTION: Obama by 3. Notice I am predicting Florida is red + 5. Florida is most definitely NOT full of fervent Obama supporters. Obama has consistently polled miserably badly here. Clinton destroyed him in Florida's naughty early primary, and McCain is now polling ahead of him. Its probable that Obama will run far worse here than nationally, but he's unlikely to just get creamed. Incredibly, in the unlikely event this election is close, I could imagine Obama pulling back from Florida (not giving up, to be sure, but not spending much time here, leaving behind instead his huge pocketbook), allocating his time instead to Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. Gore, as everyone knows, made a huge push in Florida.

I remember the Saturday before the election watching two Gore rallies in 2 of the 3 states they pushed hardest for in the end-- Florida and Tennesee. Florida's big and medium priced on average, so the dems can always flood the airwaves without spending candidate time and other resources. When it comes to Florida more so than other states, I'm really guessing wildly. If any of my swing state predictions were very seriously wrong, I'd expect it to be here in the Sunshine state.

2) Ohio: 20 Electoral Votes: Blue + less than 1. I note that in 2000, when Gore pulled out of Ohio very early, it was Red +3. Gee, Ohio is going to be a hard fought swing state. I'm a real genius. What WOULD you do without me? It is a metaphysical certainty that Ohio will be fought over fiercely by both candidates, no matter what the polls, no matter how much or little money they each have, no matter what world events intervene. Columbus, Cleveland, Dayton etc. Get used to ANOTHER season of nonstop candidate visits, ads and news about the election. Assuming Obama and McCain are in fact the candidates, nothing can change this. It wouldn't surprise me a bit if they both were in Ohio for a chunk of the last week of the election. If Obama wins Florida he can afford to lose Ohio, but 20 electoral votes are obviously a ton. In addition, Ohio borders Pennsylvania and Michigan, two other swing states. I hate to say it, but IF this election is close (and I do not believe it will be), it very likely will come down to Ohio again.

PREDICTION: Obama by 3. Notice I am predicting that Ohio is red + 5 in 2008. As with Florida, Hillary won solidly here, and these are the kinds of voters that may not warm to Obama in droves. If this election is very very close, and Ohio is red + anything, Obama is obviously in deep doo-doo. Ask President Kerry. There has been talk of Obama picking Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, which might help marginally. Of course, in a very close election any help here is HUGE. As a final thought before I leave the Buckeye State, Gore abandoned it very early on and lost it by 2.5, so in 2004 Ohio was red + 3. I wonder if he and his campaign ever stop and wonder. Probably not, given that they all but won Florida and its 27 electoral votes, making Ohio superflouous in all of their calculations. Still, it is powerfully odd that in an election destined to be close the democrat simply abandoned Ohio, simply pretended it wasn't there.

3) Pennsylvania 21 Electoral Votes: Blue + 5. Despite having 1 more electoral vote than Ohio, and despite being a perennial swing state, I don't expect the Keystone state to be fought over that hard by later in this election cycle. As a Blue + 5 state it is winnable by the GOP, but a bit of a tough one. It is very very expensive to advertise in Philadelphia , and not cheap in Pittsburgh. Still, Bush tried hard for Pennsylvania both times, coming up short, and McCain would be foolish not to consider trying, particularly since it borders Ohio. But I think the polling will favor Obama solidly here and McCain will give up on it at some point. Philadelphia and its suburbs are chock full of two types of voters: (a) black voters; and (b) aspirational whites/white independents who are sick of the GOP. These are Obama's two best groups. Incumbent GOP Senator Rick Santorum got absolutely slaughtered here in 2006 on his way to a huge defeat, and the GOP hasn't rebulit its brand. Obama will clean McCain's clock in this part of Pa, absolutely positively destroy him. That plus winning the Pittsburgh area will be more than enough to carry the Keystone state, as it was for Gore and Kerry.

PREDICTION: Obama by 14.

4) Michigan: 17 Electoral Votes: Blue + 5. McCain WILL make a big push for Michigan, at least at the outset. He polls well there for whatever reason. At the moment, he's polling about 5 points better vs. Obama in Michigan than in Pennsylvania, a similarly blue state. If McCain took Michigian (or Pennsylvania) it would be a crippling blow to the democrats in a very close election where the dems don't take Florida. If the election is close watch Michigan. If McCain wins it Obama is in giant trouble. This is most unlikely. Much more likely is that McCain ends up abandoning Michigan late in the Summer or early in the Fall.

Notable exception-- in the highly unlikely event McCain picks Mitt Romney has his vice, he will stay in Michigan to the bitter end. One more oddity before I leave Michigan. It has really suffered economically, more so than Ohio, because of the demise of all the factory jobs, particularly in the auto industry. Dems have run it for a while at the state level, and at some point the voters there may start taking their frustrations out on the democrats. But very likely not in 2008.

PREDICTION: Obama by 11.

5) Virginia: 13 Electoral Votes: Red + 5. Virginia has been moving towards the democrats almost by the hour for the last 12 years. Obama won big in the Old Dominion, polls tolerably there (McCain up about 2 as of this writing), and I predict will make a huge, genuine, sustained push for Virigina all the way through election day. Happily for Obama, and unhappily for McCain, it is fairly expensive. Northern Virginia, which is where the Washington DC suburbs and exburbs are, is deep blue at this point, is extremely expensive, and is loaded with aspirational whites. In short, absolutely Obama country. Richmond is both very democratic and has a lot of black voters, thus also Obama country. The rest of Virginia, however, is the opposite of Obama country. McCain will destroy Obama in the rest of the state.

Anyway, defending Virginia will be a pain in McCain's ass and a far bigger pain in his campaign treasury. Virginia is a golden opportunity for the democrats to eat into Bush's coalition. Clinton did not win Virginia either time, in 2 elections where he the popular vote fairly easily both times, won Tennesee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky and West Virginia twice and Georgia in 1992. Virgina has changed that much. I note that Virginia was Red + 11 in 1996, and Red + 8 in 2000, so it has trended blue for a while now. It moved 3 points towards blue from 1996-2000, 3 more points from 2000 to 2004, and could easily have moved that much or more since. If Virginia is "naturally" Red + 2 right now, which is probably about right, a vigorous campaign by Obama could flip it in a close election. I expect Virignia to be the largest truly new battleground for 2008, and to be very hotly contested. Check Colorado below for my 2nd biggest and 2nd most fascinating new battleground.

PREDICTION: Obama by 7 (!!!) I'm going a bit out on a limb here. The conventional wisdom is that Obama will make a play for Va., then back off. I don't see it that way obviously.

If my prediction is correct, the GOP losing Virginia, which hasn't voted for a democrat since 1964, by 7 points, will send shockwaves throughout the southern GOP. My 7 points may be conservative. Because of some factors unique to Virginia, as well as a decent-sized % of black voters, I wouldn't be surprised if Obama won it by 13! The state Republican party is in a very bad way right now. A few prominent members have endorsed democrat Mark Warner in his Senate bid. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/08/AR2008060801906.html

I note that Mark Warner, is going to win the open Senate seat by a whole bunch more than 7 points, perhaps as many as 20. Virginia, traditionally a bit of a sleepy state politically, will be rip roaring active in 2008 if I am right, possibly (along with Ohio) political ground zero, and the environment there favors the democrats. It is astounding that a state both parties ignored in 2004 will, I predict, be as hard-fought as any state other than Ohio and Florida. Again, this prediction is out there a bit-- check this specific prediction-- is Virginia harder fought than anywhere else except Ohio and MAYBE Florida-- if it is not-- I blew it. Virginia will tell us a lot about whether the country has changed, in so many ways. If Obama does win by something like my 8 points, and only wins Virginia by a hair, or loses it, then likely nothing much has changed from all the way back in 2000, or racism was a big factor. If, however, Virginia is indeed Red + 1 or so, and Obama wins it by 5-6 points, that means a bunch of real voters switched from R to D in a southern state (it won't only be Northern Virginia, which isn't really the south anymore). Anyway, Virginia is fascinating, much more so than Ohio, which hasn't changed since 2000 (or 1996, or 1992....) except for manufacturing employment going down much further.

6) Missouri: 11 Electoral Votes: Red + 4. The show me state. Gore and Kerry showed no one. Heck, they barely showed up. They each started out trying for Missouri then gave up midway through the campaign. Obama battled Hillary to a virtual draw. Given Obama's superior financial resources, he'll make at least a solid play for Missouri. Remember, if Obama wins by 6 points and Missouri remains Red + 4, Obama carries it. Bill Clinton carried it twice. On the downside, its not that expensive. Missouri borders Arkansas and Iowa, two traditional swing states. However, neither is really a swing state this time, as I discuss below. Missouri may be a lot less appetizing than it first appears for Obama. Virginia looks more promising for Obama than Missouri, in my opinion. It has 2 more electoral votes, has a larger black population percentage wise and, more importantly, has more of what I call aspirational white voters-- middle class people doing better economically then they expected to (though perhaps struggling a bit now) and not merely hoping for a better future for themselves, but expecting it. Educated, professional, disproportionately white collar. Northern Virginia is chock full of these kinds of voters. Missouri less so. Ohio still less so. Nevertheless, I expect Obama to keep playing here, though not as hard as many other swing states. If the election looks to be very close in September/October, they will likely make the mistake of following the Gore/Kerry strategy and pull out of Missouri, focusing on Ohio, Virginia and Colorado instead.

PREDICTION: Obama by 2. In a very close election Obama probably loses here. It is truly hard to see Obama winning here and losing Ohio and Florida and thus desparately needing Missouri to get to 270. But stranger things have happened. Ask President Gore....

7) Minnesota: Blue + 6 This historically bluest of blue states (Mondale carried it as his home state in 1984, the ONLY state Reagan didn't win, Dukakis carried it in 1988, when Minnesota was blue + 15) has moved VERY sharply towards red in recent years. Still, blue + 6 is blue + 6 and means a hurdle for McCain. Obama is up 10 ish points in the polls, reflecting his national lead plus the blueish tint. I'm sure McCain will go after it in the beginning. In fact, the GOP is holding its convention in Minnesota, in a big effort to win it or its neighboring states. Bush couldn't get there either time, and neither can McCain. The GOP will abandon Minnesota in October, and should do so.

PREDICTION: Obama by 14

8) Wisconsin: Blue + 3 Wisconsin is less historically blue than Minnesota, (it was exactly even, red + 0, in 2000) but everything I wrote above holds, except for the GOP convention. McCain will try, no doubt, but he will fail. If McCain is competitive in either Wisconsin or Minnesota, that means this election will be much closer to a rerun of 2000 and 2004 than I think it will, and also means Obama is in real trouble with Florida VERY tough for him in a national environment that is very close. This is most unlikely. Obama should win easily in both states without trying all that hard. PREDICTION: Obama by 13

9) Colorado: 9 Electoral votes: Red + 2. Now we return to a really interesting state. If in my world Virignia is THE big new story for 2008 in the presidential election, Colorado is a close second. Colorado is traditionally quite red. Clinton won it in 1992, helped heavily by a strong Perot showing, and lost by 1.4% in 1996. Since Clinton won by 8.5 points in 1996, that means Colorado was Red + 10 in 1996. In 2000 Colorado was Red +9.5 (no movement). In 2004, however, it was Red +2!! So it moved slightly more than 7 points towards the democrats in just 4 years. It doesn't seem to me to have moved red since, so it starts 2008 somewhere around even to perhaps Red + 2. This is a huge move for a state these days. Colorado is absolutely filled with aspirational white voters who have voted for Obama in droves. Like Virginia, and this is not coincidence at all, Colorado has a race for an open Senate seat which the democrats should easily win. Mark Udall (a very famous political last name in the west) is up in all the polls and will win, but not by as much as Warner in Virginia. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/co/colorado_senate-556.html Colorado is enormously environmentally conscious. Even though it is not at all expensive (which again, Obama would PREFER), I'm 100% certain that Obama will make a huge play for it. He destroyed Hillary in the caucuses here, 66-32 (but with low turnout, nowhere near that of a primary) Any state with 9 votes that is between Red + 2 and Blue + 2 is a sure battleground. The fact that it was red in 2000 and 2004 makes it seem even jucier (even though 9 votes is 9 votes, regardless of where they went in 2004).

PREDICTION: Obama by 10!! I want to note how breataking this prediction is. I am predicting Colorado, a traditionally quite Republican state, is BLUE + 2! I'm well out on a limb here, predicting a solid win/blowout for Obama in a reliably red state. But unlike Ohio or Florida, there appears to be real support for him here. If I'm way off on this prediction, do laugh! But I'm feeling pretty damn confident Obama will at least win Colorado fairly comfortably.

10) Iowa: 7 Electoral votes: Blue + 2. Iowa was one of only 3 states that switched its vote from 2000 to 2004. In 2000 it went very narrowly for Gore, whereas in 2004 it went narrowly for Bush. Its a classic purple state, even more of a swing state than Florida or Ohio. Obama campaigned very hard in Iowa, really got to know it, and vice versa, and won narrowly in the democratic primary. McCain has not campaigned much in it over the years because he (bravely and correctly) opposes ethanol subsidies, which are hugely popular in Iowa. This issue is just tremendous there, and will prevent McCain in my opinion from seriously competing here, a classic case of no good deed going unpunished. I predict McCain abandons Iowa fairly early on, even though it is quite inexpensive, as he just can't win here without winning a national landslide (even then he probably can't win it). It is 7 electoral votes, Bush won without it in 2000 and would have won without it in 2004. Why beat your head against a wall for 7 electoral votes? Obama is up in every single solitary poll taken in Iowa against McCain and there have been a bunch. Ethanol is just a huge negative for McCain here--McCain is very right to be against Ethanol subsidies, and he has been against them to the obvious detriment of his presidential ambitions. Virtue is really being punished here. But he's a republican, so that's just too bad.

PREDICTION: Obama by 13. If Obama wins it by under say 7 and gets to 270 electoral votes, you may rub my nose in it for a generation.

11) Arkansas: 6 Electoral Votes: Red + 6 Arkansas doesn't really belong here, unless maybe MAYBE if Obama chooses Hillary for the # 2 slot (and really not even then). McCain is up 15-20 points on Obama in the polls as of now. Hillary destroyed him, 70-27, for one of her biggest victories. She certainly could have put Bill's home state in play. Obama likely can't, so for 6 electoral votes, why bother? Arkansas is chock full of the kind of downscale whites that voted for Hillary in DROVES in Kentucky and West Virginia. The d's have probably abandoned hope here already.

PREDICTION: McCain by 5 (that's red + 13!). If suburban Va is Obama country, Arkansas is anti-Obama country.

12) New Mexico: 5 Electoral Votes: Blue + 2 This is without a doubt the toughest of the true swing states for me to predict other than Florida. New Mexico is a true swing state, going ultra-narrowly for Gore in 2000, and very narrowly for Bush in 2004. It went narrowly for Hillary, despite Obama leading all the pre-primary polls. New Mexico will likely have the highest % of hispanic votes in the country on election day. It borders Arizona, and its people know McCain well. Hispanics there know that unlike the entire rest of the GOP, he has had reasonable views on immigration. He didn't hold fast to them, but he didn't abandon them either. I think he has a real well of goodwill, and is a known commodity in New Mexico. Any other Republican would be toast. McCain isn't. Putting Bill Richardson on the ticket would almost certainly win New Mexico's 5 electoral votes (even in a razor close election), would help in Nevada, and be a downright good idea for the rest of the country in my humble opinion. Bill Richardson is the only person on either side whose inclusion on the ticket virtually guarantees his swing-home state. Its only 5 electoral votes. If Obama picks him for THAT reason he's not worthy of being president. I do think Obama will try HARD to win New Mexico. Real hard. McCain will not abandon it under any circumstances-- its only 5 votes, but it will be hard-fought to the bitter end- for the 3rd election in a row. If McCain is down 10 ish here late in the game, which is possible, the election is over, guaranteed.

PREDICTION: Obama by 4. I have no confidence whatsoever in this prediction. But if Obama wins by my 8 points how on earth can he lose a state that is Blue + 2?

13) Nevada: 5 Electoral Votes: Blue + 0! Nevada was red + 3 in 2000, moved 3 points towards the democrats (again, relatively speaking) in 2004, and likely has NOT moved any further. It really is a reddish state at heart. BUT....The subprime crisis has hit VERY hard here in the Silver State. The housing market in Vegas boomed, big time, and is busting, big time. The city's doing fine, but a whole mess of people know someone losing their home. Everyone has lost a lot of value out of their home. McCain's approach to the housing crisis is to bury his head in the sand and hope for the best. This will be a real problem here, and I think will likely decide the state in favor of Obama. On the other hand, McCain's Arizona borders Nevada, and, like New Mexico, they know him very well, and he knows water, and their issues. Hillary won by 5. McCain polls well here, and the polls may be more accurate here than in most states, because McCain is well known here. I'm not sure how hard in the end Obama will play here. If Bill Richardson is on the ticket, he'll fight massively for it, obviously. If not, he may not fight as hard. In a national + 8 election, Obama will find a way to win here most likely. But he'll have to sweat. In a very close election Obama loses here. The more I think about Nevada, the tougher I think it is for Obama. And, given that its only 5 electoral votes, the less important it is. There are bigger swing states to be found elsewhere. On the other hand, he could pick Richardson, make a HUGE play for Texas, as I have advocated, have Richardson campaign hard in New Mexico and Nevada and enahance his national security credentials while helping bring the democratic party back together. That's such a good idea I'm sure Obama won't do it.

PREDICTION: Obama + 4.

14) New Hampshire: 4 Electoral Votes, Blue + 4 The Granite state was the ONLY state that Bush won in 2000 and lost in 2004. This is part of a general trend whereby the northeast becomes more and more democratic. New Hampshire is as tough to predict as New Mexico, but for a completely different reason. McCain is genuinely popular here. He creamed Bush in New Hampshire in 2000 and won it again in 2008. Pat Buchanan beat Bush 41 here big in 1992. New Hampshire residents really like independent thinkers, mavericks. Sound like McCain country? It should be. He draws crowds here polls well (ahead of Obama by a tiny bit in a state that is BLUE + 4. So as of April and May he POLLED somewhere near 6 points better than he should given the state's blueish tint. I think that effect is real and that McCain is genuinely popular here. But it won't matter a bit. The incumbent Senator, Sunnu, will go down in flames. He is up against a fairly popular former governor, who the people of New Hampshire obviously know well. She'll win by at least 8-10, and maybe a goodly bunch more. This trend in New Hampshire towards the democrats. Democrats won both houses of the state legislature in 2006, controlling both houses for the first time since 1874! http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/24/AR2006112401099.html The trend towards the democrats in New Hamshire is just too pronounced, and will wash McCain away. He'd have won this state easily in 2000 or 2004. Not this time. Another piece of real bad news for Johnny Mac. You need to advertise in Boston to reach parts of the state. And that's pricey. Also New Hampshire is a short flight from the nearest real swing state, Ohio. I'll bet McCain gets stubborn, overrules his campaign advisors, and competes hard for New Hampshire all the way to the bitter end. It'll be a dreadful mistake-- fighting hard, and expensively, for 4 Electoral Votes that you can't win. You heard it here first, McCain will not abandon this little state, no matter what.

PREDICTION: Obama by 7.

That concludes our tour through the swing states. Had everyone returned to New Orleans, Louisiana may have made this list. Tennesee, which Clinton won twice, doesn't; Obama just can't win it. Georgia is a longshot, a REAL longshot, to be a swing state in a close election.

As you can see, I predict Obama winning damn near all of them. Well, I predict him winning by 8, and if he does he WILL win damn near all of them. If he wins by 3 he'll win less of them, but still should win enough to get to 270, even without BOTH OHIO AND FLORIDA (thank you Virginia!). In the real world, if Obama wins Ohio, and there isn't a racist backlash in the rest of the midwest, he gets to 270, regardless of what happens. If he doesn't, but there is no racist backlash, he probably gets to 270. Of course, if there's a racist backlash, it will show up in Ohio....

Finally, the big and biggish states that are out of play:

1) California: 55 Electoral votes (most by far): Blue + 12. (This is the one state where the error in my counting method REALLY matters-- Cali is actually BLUER than 12, probably more like 15, I don't care to spend the time to figure it out). Its real blue. No home state favorite, and the dems won it in 2004 by a solid 9 points. Even if McCain had excess money, the Golden State, and its insanely expensive tv markets wouldn't be the place to spend it. Even being from neighboring Arizona isn't enough. Let's posit that McCain could, with herculean effort, and money he won't dream of having, move California from Blue + 12 to Blue + 5, a solid 7 point swing. Still not worth anything unless he wins the national vote by 5 points, in which case he won't need California. The McCain people are pretending to be ready to make a play for it. W did the same thing in 2000. It would be the political blunder of the ages, and they won't make it. Cali will be ignored, as it has for the great most part since 1988.

PREDICTION: Obama by 15. Despite this monster win, note that I have California as Blue + 7, a bit of a relative move towards red (which, no doubt, will provide great joy to the McCain camp).

2) Texas 34 Electoral votes (second most): Red + 20. That's with home state governor Bush. Still to swing from Red + 20 to say Red + 3, to make it in play, is an awfully tall order. I said in an earlier post that Obama should make a play for Texas, and I haven't changed my mind (although doing so probably requires Bill Richardson be his vice). Well I don't think I've changed my mind. Moving it from Red + whatever it is without homey W is probably just too big a swing in one election. Texas may be in play for the democrats by 2016, and if it is, and California remains Blue, god help the GOP. However, without Bush on the ticket, Texas is probably more like Red + 10. That means that in a real landslide there's an outside chance Obama could win it.

PREDICTION: McCain by 8. In a popular vote landslide Obama may shock everyone and win Texas. But I doubt it. Clinton came within 5 points in 1996 (although he was from neighboring Arkansas and Perot, from Texas, was on the ballot-- so its really hard to say where Texas was in 1996). Obama outperforming Bill Clinton here seems wildly unlikely. Given that I'm predicting an 8 point win but a bunch of Obama landslides, McCain's big vote #s have to come from somewhere and Texas is that somewhere.

3) New York: 31 Electoral votes (third most) Blue + 22. The Empire State is now as blue as Texas was red WHEN BUSH was on the ticket. Needless to say, New York is out of reach. PREDICTION: Obama by 26. Hillary cleaned Obama's clock here, but in NYC Obama will severely run up the score. There are questions among jewish voters, which make up around 20% of New York City voters, but other than on Israel Bush is as unpopular here as anywhere in the country. Trust me, I know, I live here. You struggle to find ANYONE with a good word to say about Bush, or the Republicans in general. Obama will win just huge huge numbers in the 5 boroughs of NYC, where Bush's name is MUD, a republican is as rare as a flying pink unicorn, and McCain's independent appeal vanished long ago. I note that because the biggest and third biggest states are SO blue, this causes the democrats to "waste votes." Or, put another way, as we all found out to our cost in 2000, it is very possible for the democrats to win the popular vote and lose the election, since dems run up gigantic vote margins in 2 of the 3 biggest states. It is what it is until we dump the electoral college, which the GOP will fiercely resist, for just the reasons just discussed.

4) Illinois: 21 Electoral votes (tied for 4th most): Blue + 14. And that was without Obama, from Illinois, on the ticket. The GOP gave up on Illinois long long ago, and would not contest it if I was the democratic nominee.

PREDICTION: Obama by 30 (!!)

5) North Carolina: 15 Electoral votes: Red + 9. Every four years the democrats dream of winning NC, saying its changed, and lots of people have moved in. Every four years the democrats don't come close. I thought I was going to predict that the same thing would happen again in 2008. Then I looked into it. NC may be a LOT closer in 2008. I note that NC has, I believe, the second smallest percentage of black Americans among southern states, with only Tennessee lower. However, if Obama is winning solidly in a lot of places, has made a huge effort for neighboring Virginia, and has money to burn, each of which I predict to be the case, he may well make a late push for the Tar Heel state. After all, he will have spent a lot of his non-Ohio and Colorado time in neighboring Virginia, and North Carolina may seem like an easy way to force McCain out of the midwest and make him spend precious money elsewhere. Now that I think about it, Obama SHOULD make a push for North Carolina. It almost certainly won't work, but so what, particularly if it helps him in Virginia, which has overlapping tv markets in the sections of Virginia where Obama is weakest, appalachia. For what its worth, there have been 4 polls in NC since May 17, and they have McCain winning NC by an average of 4.5 points. You want to know why I think McCain's toast? He's up a grand total of 4.5 points in a state that is red + 9 (and was despite adoptive Native son John Edwards on the ticket in 2004). If you're a McCain campaign guy trying to get to 270, that's terrifying. Not because Mccain can't win without NC, because I suppose he could, particularly if he won Ohio. But because if McCain has to fight for North Carolina, he is obviously toast!

PREDICTION: McCain by 3

6) Georgia: 15 Electoral votes: Red + 14. There is a lot talk of Obama making a hard push for Georgia. It probably makes sense, as he has the money to advertise in Atlanta, and Georgia has a lot of black voters. But to swing from Red + 14 to say Red +2, and steal it in a close election? Possible I admit, but highly unlikely. Obama COULD win Georgia, I suppose, but probably only in a national landslide. The idea that Obama could lose nationally by 1 and steal Georgia making it BLUE + 2? Very very doubtful, to say the least! Georgia, despite a juicy 15 electoral votes, just isn't worth the trouble unless perhaps polling shows white republicans planning to stay home in droves (in which case Obama will win 350+ electoral votes without Georgia).

PREDICTION: McCain by 6

7) New Jersey: 15 Electoral Votes: Blue + 9. McCain personally has talked about battling for New Jersey. He won't. Its much too expensive. Gore won it by a lot more than Kerry did-- the Garden State was affected by 9-11 somewhat. New Jersey is actually traditionally pretty conservative, but like so many Northeastern states it has seriously trended to the democrats. It will be won again by the GOP in coming years, but not 2008. It will be abandoned before the GOP convention. If McCain gets stubborn he'll disasterously waste time and money. NJ is a sure thing for the democrats, unless I am badly underestimating race as a factor. Even if I am, and plus 9 becomes +2, the dems still win here in a close election. To restate the obvious, forget NJ.

PREDICTION: Obama by 15

Finally, a note about West Virginia. It used to be RELIABLY blue. Not no more. It was blue + 12 in 1988, blue + 7 in 1992, blue + 6 in 1996, RED + 6.1 in 2000, and Red + 10.5 in 2004. Just a stunning move from blue to red over recent elections, a total swing of 22.5 points to the red. Hillary won by 40 here. It is FULL of downscale whites, economically populist, culturally conservative. A loud clear message that government is listening to them and hears them, could sway them. Obama's a lousy messenger. My precious Gore lost here by > 6, despite adopting "the people vs. the powerful" as his campaign slogan. The voters in West Virginia could smell a phoney a mile away.