Today's the big day. Not to mention parade day for the Giants here in Manhattan. WHAT A GAME!
As for the democrats today, I'm going to confidently predict what's going to happen: I have no idea. Hillary will win New York, big, but don't be fooled, New York is not representative of the national democratic party at the moment, and its not only because its Hillary's adopted home state.
The real surprise today on the democratic side would be if there's a very clear winner. Obama has virtually erased Hillary's national polling lead, which she's held nonstop since this process began. Like Hillary he has enormously passionate committed supporters. I handed out literature for the Clinton campaign last night and this morning, and more than a few people smirked at me, or even said, "Obama."
If we dems have a foodfight for another month or even two, that won't hurt us any-- lots of pubicity. But if it goes on into the Summer (unlikely, but not impossible), that could spell disaster in the Fall.
Finally, I want to address what I am calling McCain Panic. A few democrats I know are in mortal terror of McCain and think we can't possibly win in November, especially if Hill is the nominee. I have told them to calm down. If there were a snap election held next week Hill would clean his clock, because she's not a Republican. The country is fed up with the Bushies. Bush has well less than 10% support among democrats, and (I'm guessing) less than 20% among independents. Yes, some of these people would support McCain now, and some will in November. But as of this instant the country wants to elect a democrat by more than 10 points. This will of course close big time by November; I assess the chances of a democrat landslide as very low (last one LBJ 64, last one before that, sort of, 1944 (which was only 53/46, but was an electoral college landslide). But the idea that the dems can't beat McCain is silly. Yes, he's their best candidate by far. Yes he'll attract independents and some democrats. But here's a simple fact: Obama had a rally in Idaho yesterday. Idaho has almost no democrats. He attracted 15,000 people. That's more than voted in the Idaho democratic primaries in 2004. Clinton is also generating wild enthusiasm. If they are both on a ticket together, as I expect, they could generate enough enthusiasm and new voters to simply overwhelm McCain's ability to attract swing voters. I'm not predicting any of this, I don't begin to begin to know what will happen. But McCain Panic is not justified, at least not yet.
The FHQ+ Electoral College Projection (10/30/24)
3 weeks ago
13 comments:
Bahhhhhh to Hillary
Poooooooo to Obama
Pres. Pat Buchanan
VP Ron Paul
State Sean Hannity
Defense Ann Coulter
Yessssssssssssssssssssssss
you are clearly "larry in california" dreaming! of course your dream is probably everybody else's nightmare
while I'm not as certain as Daniel is, and a lot can change in 9 months, I do think that the next pres will be Obama or Hilary
latest polls in CA show Romney with the lead, will be interesting to see how that turns out, but nevertheless, I think McCain wins big tonight
on the dem side, who knows, but I give the edge to the lady senator from Ark, er, New York
Did not vote today, am Independent, but tend to vote Republican in general election.
I prefer Romney to win nomination, but will vote very reluctantly for McCain, dont like his stance on amnesty for illegals.
Both Hillary and Obama love illegal aliens.
Super Tuesday, 11:00 P.M., PST
Well, looks like McCain versus
Hillary in November, you all agree??
it's not over on the dem side, but Hilary-McCain is still the more likely scenario
OK, I know its very premature, buts speculate on VP choices
if Hillary and McCain win their
parties nominations.
Who do you folks think will be VPs, me no idea?
I'll post on my thoughts on Super Duper Tuesday soon, probably by 3:00 p.m. eastern today.
As for Vice choices:
A) Dems-- If its Hillary (and that's still a BIG BIG if)-- the clear choice, by far, is Obama. I think she'll offer and mean it, I have no idea if he'd accept. He's so far ahead as a # 1 choice that I won't spend any time on # 2.
If its Obama, its much less clear. I'm not at all sure Hill wants to be VP for 4 or 8 years, in fact I doubt it. Joe Biden's national security experience and gray hair would be attractive. So would Evan Bayh of neighboring Indiana. Mark Warner of Virginia would be VERY attractive. I just don't have a feel here.
B) GOP -- this is much less clear. McCain is pretty pig-headed, and probably doesn't respect Huckabee enough to take him. Romney offers nothing and is out of the question. Charlie Christ, governor of Florida, would be a very attractive choice. He's conservative without being off-putting, very attractive as a candidate, and oh, can probably deliver Florida in the general. The d's can win without Florida, to be sure, but its MUCH harder.
I think at this point, Obama has to be on the ticket somewhere. So he makes a great VP candidate. I agree with you though that I don't see Hilary accepting the VP position. I have no idea who Obama would pick for VP.
As for McCain, all you can be sure is that it will be somebody conservative so that he can shore up his credentials in that area. No way Romney. Huck, I don't know, maybe. He's got a following. McCain has been in DC so long, I'm sure he's got plenty of buddies to pick from.
I have to say Crist of Florida would be the best choice for Mac, at least as of now. If nothing else, having "Christ" on the ticket should help him with the social conservatives. And also, imagine a close contest resolved in Mac's favor b/c of Florida. It would sound like an athlete who just won the championship. "and I could not have won without the help of C[h]rist." I cannot see Obama taking a VP post and potentially keeping him from running in 4 years. Had he faded earlier in the primaries much like Edwards in '04, then a VP spot might be a good place for him. But he's come too far to accept 2nd place. And he will want to run again in 4 years, or at least keep his options open. By that time he will be a 2 term Senator and can boast of some real experience. Not just the "experience" of giving a rousing speech at the Democratic National Convention.
I don't think accepting a VP post would hurt Obama's future aspirations. If Hilary wins, I doubt anybody would challenge her for the '12 Democratic nomination. If she loses, then Obama could run again with no problem, and possibly with little notable opposition.
Did anybody notice Larry's babe/Sec. of Defense, Ann Coulter, saying she would vote and campaign for Hilary if McCain were the republican nominee.
I pay no attention whatsoever to Ann Coulter; she's not worth it. Sorry Bryan.
As for the vp choice, its a no-lose for Obama. In fact, saying no is what could hurt him with a lot of people. If Hillary wins he goes from random Senator to VP, and if she loses he becomes the huge huge frontrunner in 12.
Ann Coultert has transcended politics, she is not an entertainer, I like her a lot
Coulter's a nut. Nuff said.
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