The democrats will win the presidency, and will do extremely well in the congressional elections. My much hoped for GOP wipeout will happen.
First the presidential. As you all know, I think McCain is an extremely strong candidate. I think in practically every election cycle since 1948 (perhaps literally every one except 1964 and 1996) McCain would win. But not in 2008. A combination of a recession and severe Bush fatigue has combined for a country raring and ready to elect Barney the Purple dinosaur if he were running as a democrat. This year, the GOP just can't win.
I'll write more soon about why the dems will do so very very well in 2008. In this post I'm going way out on a limb and predicting which states the dems will win. I hope I look back on this post in November and don't feel absolutely stupid. Here goes.
Start with the states Al Gore won in 2000. There are many web sites which tell you this, including www.270towin.com. Select 2000. Obama (or Clinton in the very unlikely event she is the nominee) will carry every state Gore carried). The democrat will also carry: Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Arkansas, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky and New Hampshire. This would give the democrat 364 electoral votes, way more than the 270 needed. This margin is solid enough that the democrat could lose BOTH Ohio and Florida and still win with room to spare. This map that I am projecting is similar to Bill Clinton's easy 1996 reelection win.
As for Congress, the dems will gain seats in both chambers. I couldn't guess at the number in the house, but it won't be tiny. There is a gigantic $$ and enthusiasm gap, and that will translate into D gains, especially with a large number of open seats.
As for the Senate, the GOP has TOUGH seats to defend. First, the GOP retirements. The Senate seats in Colorado, Idaho, Nebraska, New Mexico and Virginia are open due to GOP retirements. Mark Warner, a former Governor of Virginia, is nearly a sure thing to pick up that seat. Colorado also looks very good. New Mexico is possible, and Nebraska and Idaho will stay with the GOP unless 2008 is a wipeout for the GOP. I thus predict that the dems pick up Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico.
GOP incumbents in trouble include Susan Collins of Maine, Mitch McConell, the Senate Minority Leader, in Kentucky, Norm Coleman of Minnesota, John Sununu of New Hampshire, Gordon Smith of Oregon, and possibly Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina (who has been a real disappointment). I could see a bunch of these losing on a good night for the democrats. As of now I pick the dems in Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon. This is a total of a 6-seat gain for the democrats.
The only democratic held Senate seats that are seriously up for grabs are in South Dakota and Louisiana. In South Dakota, a very GOP state, Tim Johnson, who won very narrowly in 2002, suffered a serious stroke a few years back, and is recovering. I'm guessing he wins, but I have no confidence in this guess. I predict that Mary Landrieu loses in Louisiana, for the GOP's only pickup on what will be a disastrous night for them. So I predict the dems will pick up 5 Senate seats. Those seats, plus a bunch of house seats, plus 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue will be a big night indeed for the Dems. There'll be a lot of crying elephants.
It'll be fun to look back on this post after the election and see how I did.
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22 hours ago
4 comments:
First comment- Dole. I don't think there is any way she loses. She's doing well enough in opinion/favorability polls here in NC, and no big name democrat has stepped up to the plate to face her. I just don't see her losing right now, esp. since the State has trended republican for a long time now for the DC posts.
As for the rest of your post, I do think Obama will win as long as the long, drawn out campaign for the nomination doesn't harm him too much. Dems are enjoying unbelievable turnout, while republicans are lukewarm about their options. McCain may be very attractive to independents and some dems, but in the end, I think (hope) Obama wins. Larry in California might be cleaning one of his guns for use on himself come November.
Bahhhhhhh to Obama, double bahhhhhhhhhh to Hillary,
Yesssssssssssss to Pat Buchanan,
yesssssssss to National ID cards to attest to US citizenship or legal residence to combat illegal aliens employment.
Yessssssssss to concealed weapons on college campuses to stop shootings.
From Larry in Calif, previous post # 2 was me of course, format has changed, how do I log in,no longer says name??
I signed up for a google account, was easier to do it that way
you must like Obama, you only gave him one Bahhhhhhh!
Pat Buchanan is irrelevant.
As for National ID cards, so you're in favor of starting and funding another federal agency? Would be pretty expensive.
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