Goodbye Hillary. She's toast.
The democratic campaign effectively ended yesterday, in cold Wisconsin. In a very white middle class state, where demographics favored Clinton, Obama wiped the floor with her, winning among white men by 19 points and losing white women, CLINTON'S BASE, by only 2. This race is over, Obama has won. I am now 99.9% positive. Its pretty obvious really. Counting Wisconsin, Obama has now won 10 states in a row, and won them all BIG. The closest Hillary has come to a win since Super Duper Tuesday was yesterday in Wisconsin, which she lost by "only" 17 points. She's a political corpse. Its been obvious for a week, I should have seen it sooner. I'm sorry, I let you down a bit.
Why has Obama been cleaning her clock? Like Kerry and Gore before her, Hill doesn't wear well. The more you see of her the less you like her/more you dislike her. Obama does wear well. After Super Duper Tuesday, when it was clear that Obama might win, voters in states still to come took a careful look, liked what they saw, and easily said "NO," to voting for Hillary. In short, she has just no mass appeal, despite having a great deal going for her policy-wise and otherwise.
Here's what will happen next. Hillary will get more and more negative, to no good end. Bill will get back in the spotlight, making some wild charge or another. Obama will win Ohio decisively and Texas much less decisively (hispanics will be the last to flock to Obama) but he WILL win Texas. Calls will then mount for Hillary to drop out. She and Bill are nobody's quitters, so although I can't be sure when she'll drop out, after she loses both Ohio and Texas it will be clear to Hillary that she won't win. I now predict she will drop out by March 7. In addition, more and more superdelegates will either SWITCH their promised votes from her to Obama, or will change from undecided to Obama, as the results sink in. The risk of a protracted fight all the way to the convention has all but ended.
The FHQ+ Electoral College Projection (10/30/24)
3 weeks ago
4 comments:
I mostly agree, although as NH shows, you never know what can happen. Hilary could still win Texas, maybe Ohio, PA, and make a late run. But it's unlikely. I read some analysis that Hilary had to win 58% of the remaining pledged delegates just to pull ahead of Obama in pledged delegates, and the number rises to 65% if you figure Obama wins states like NC, Mississipi, etc. See FIRST READ on MSNBC.com.
So the question really becomes when, not if, does Hilary concede. Hopefully she does what is best for the democratic party and concedes soon after March 4th, rather than trying to make it a protracted process.
Oh, and Larry in CA, I'll be proactive to your post and just say:
BAHHHAHAHAHAHA to Pat Buchanan.
Hey dude, get some new material. The 90s called. They want their candidate back.
From Guess Who in California
Very pithy comments Danny.
You two both know my feelings about Hillary, she does not wear well, and although I dont like Obama politically, yes he does wear well.
Where is Barry Goldwater when we really need him, hahahaha.
Testing
FROM MONICA LEWINSKY IN CALIFORNIA
I'm voting Republican this time, the
Democrats left a bad taste in my mouth.
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