As I said in a post a few weeks back, the Obama boom has begun. The economy will do spectacularly well over the next several years, far better than nearly everyone is predicting. In addition to the significant economic ramifications, as discussed in the companion post, the coming boom will have big political ramifications.
As of this moment, the democratic part of the US electorate is dissillusioned with Obama. Nothing seems to have changed, and all we hear is TALK about health care, not action. Well, this too shall pass. It is overwhelmingly likely that a bill will be signed into law, and no one will care down the road that it took ridiculously long; instead, the voters will ask; what's in it for me.
Similarly, people are frustrated and pissed that the economy still sucks. If my Obama Boom does come to pass, and I'm even surer than before that it will, all will be forgiven. Unemployment was still over 7% when Reagan won 49 states in 1984, he won such a roaring landslide because everyone could see that things were getting much better. The same will be happening before 2012, and Obama will be similarly headed to a rocking reelection landslide.
Obama will likely win a 40-45 state reelection landslide. If my predictions about the economy are right, and nothing else ala war or watergate goes disastrously wrong, Obama will win reelection by 15 points.
Second, the boom will come in time to avert what could otherwise be bad losses for the democrats in the 2010 midterm elections, and instead leave the dems with only modest losses.
Third, and much more important than the short term political ramifications, the coming Boom will likely serve to remind Americans that government can and often does things right. The reaction to the disastrous meltdown of 2008 was spectacularly effective, and, I predict, the reaction to the coming Boom, with the fed slowly raising interest rates and taking money out of the economy, money it created in order to stimulate the economy and prevent a depression, will be almost as successful. I predict that the number of Americans who think government can actually do a lot of good, and get a lot right, will soar, from the very low numbers of today to numbers more in line with historical norms. I realize that this prediction is out there, even wacko. But when you try and predict the future sometimes there ARE sharp breaks with the present. Of course when you're wrong you look super foolish. I'm not saying that faith in the government will truly soar, but it will rise. And since the GOP is the party of government can't do anything right, it will be electorally disasterous for them. Not only will Obama win big, but he'll have big coattails. The dems could gain 15-25 house seats and 5-8 Senate seats in 2012 if what I forsee comes to pass.
Put another way, the above will make GOP attacks on government fall on far less receptive ears than they have since the late 1970s, which will have the extremely positive side effect of forcing the GOP to come up with a new message. Say, the government spends too much, and doesn't do what it does well. THAT's the message that the GOP used to send, and its a vital message! They've gotten away from that, to "Government isn't the solution, government is the problem," Reagan's famous line. Well, mostly not. If you're old, young, sick, or in any other way not fully able to take care of your needs as well as a healthy middle class adult, government IS the solution. Oh, and even if you are middle class, prosperous and well, you need government to regulate the financial markets, the health care system, and so on. Ask Lehman. Ask millions of foreclosed homeowners. Yes, Middle America, I'm talking to you! Not to mention getting the basics right. Americans understand that Bush ran two wars badly, failed during Katrina (with plenty of Louisiana (democratic party) failure thrown in, left the economy teetering on the edge of depression, and allowed America's problems to fester. Even people who don't follow politics overmuch get that. Ask President McCain.
Now, if after a few years of Obama the economy is booming, health care is being partially reshaped, the war in Iraq is winding down and the war in Afghanistan is being won, all of which I predict, faith in him, the democrats, and the federal government in general, will go way up! This will have profound ramifications, some of which I have outlined, some of which I can't even begin to guess. But this is the near term political future. Democrats up, Republicans down further, and, after a weak showing in 2010, democrats should be able to make gains all around in 2012 on the coattails of Obama's landslide reelection.
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