Flying Pink Unicorns

Obama will very likely win.

Well, a few of my loyal fans asked me to quit it with the swing state nonsense and say who will win. Who's gonna put their hand on the bible on January 20, 2009, and who's going to be watching from the audience and pretending to clap.

Obama will very likely win. The three most likely ways McCain wins, in order of likelihood, are:

1) Racism. There is a HUGE as yet unrealized, reluctance to vote for a black man in states that are 80% + white. Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, etc.

2) Obama comes across distant and weak in the debates. He is distant, and is at times a mediocre debater, not a ton of fire. But McCain is no Bill Clinton either. He has plenty of life, but takes things personally and can be nasty and sarcastic.

3) McCain is somehow seen as the savior of the bailout package being discussed now in Congress (more on that on a blog post near you coming soon) AND this bailout is tolerably popular. This is a most unlikely scenario, but he sure is trying to look like a president in waiting.

4) A major foreign policy incident, or, god forbid, an attack on the US. I still think there's juice in that card.

Could McCain win absent a big shift in world events? Yes. But Obama is much more likely than McCain to win if things stay as they are. The financial crisis almost has to help Obama. And he may not need the help.