Israel has a bad case of the stupids.
In case you missed it, one of the lead stories today (a day full of stories about the drowning American economy, more on that on a post coming to computers near you), is Israel trading a notorious terrorist murderer, several other prisoners, and the bodies of several prisoners, for the bodies of two soldiers captured by Hezzbullah in 2006.
To recap, in 2006, after a series of provocations, Hezzbullah crossed the border and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers. In a shocking response (I'm NOT being sarcastic) Israel began the 2006 Lebanon war. One of their stated war aims was the freedom of the 2 soldiers. As everyone will remember, Israel declared peace with precisely none of their war aims met (a war operation that makes our Iraq mission look like a brilliant success by comparison). So the two soldiers stayed in captivity.
They were apparently killed in captivity, and now Israel has traded a few bodies (fine) and some prisoners (not fine!) and a very live murderer for them. Now the murderer they set free, though unrepentent, is no more dangerous than the next murderer; this isn't some mastermind, from what I've heard.
But THINK about the precedent. You capture Israelis, you kill them, you wait for a Prime Minister under threat of indictment for corruption and you trade their bodies for prisoners, or perhaps something else you want. This precedent is beyond awful.
Apparently this exchange is relatively popular in Israel; has a good deal of support. Now I know you do whatever you have to rescue your own, dead or alive. And I know you never leave a soldier behind. But making this kind of deal with Hezzbullah is beyond awful. If Israel got a lot in return (a Hezzbullah leader willing to recognize it, for example), well to get a lot you may have to negotiate with terrorists, to encourage more kidnappings, to look weak, and to do all of the idiotic and reckless things that Israel has just done. But to get the bodies of two soldiers?
Nope, Prime Minister ME would have told Hezbullah just what to do with this "offer." Of course, had Israel followed MY war plan in 2006, none of this would have happened. The soldiers would still be dead, unfortunately, but Hezzbullah would be badly defanged, not openly welcoming home a cold blooded murderer as a conquering hero.
Israel, and not just its leaders, but especially its leaders, and double especially the Olmert government is just too stupid to root for. So very many of their security related decisions are so badly wrong. This is just the latest.
Flying Pink Unicorns
Flying Pink Unicorns
7 comments:
I agree with you. I can't believe Israel is trading a LIVE murderer (plus other prisoners and bodies) for two DEAD Israelis. Negotiating with terrorists always sets a dangerous precedent. If the soldiers were still alive, there would at least be some good to come of it.
hmm, maybe GW is really president of Israel too, only in disguise. Seems like a typical GW bonehead move.
No argument, was a bad trade.
Danny, when are we ging to hear about your reaction to Heller decision?
Also, what do you all think of the US diplomat going to speak with the Iranians in Geneva?
Sounds promising, doesnt it?
Danny, what was your war plan in 2006?
Larry:
My plan for the Lebanon war was VICTORY. I am a vicious critic of Israeli policy vis-a-vis the Ps. I think its stupid, against Israeli security interests, hugely, a big fat lie, and much more.
But as for Lebanon/Hezzbullah, well they have no grievances I recognize. Israel's sole goal there should be and should have been to reduce the threat to a tolerable level or eliminate it altogether.
In 2006, Israel decided to take the kidnapping of 2 soldiers as an act of war. Fine. They should have fought until: (1) they were defeated, that is Hezzbullah controlled Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and the Israeli military was in tatters; or (2) Hezbullah was for all intents and purposes eliminated as a threat. That would likely have taken evicting many tens of thousands of civilians from South Lebanon, killing the fighters remaining house by house, and declaring the area under Israeli military control for the medium term. That would have moved Hezzbullah far enough north that most or all of their rockets could not hit Northern Israel, and they could not impact it.
It would have shocked the world, been bloody as all get out, but would also have showed Iran that Israel means business when it comes to its national security (which, despite all images DIRECTLY to the contrary, I think it often does not). THAT was my war plan.
Not starting the war at all would have been reasonable. Not my preferred choice, as Hezbullah represented (and represents!) a clear and present danger to Israeli national security, but nevertheless a perfectly reasonable choice, to live with the threat. Once Israel started the war, and bombed airports and infrastructure, to settle for anything less than a totally defanged Hezzbullah was a bad strategic defeat. Everyone in the region understood that. Hezz celebrated their "patriotic resistance," while Israelis were mostly left wondering what the heck it was they fought for.
Not a bad plan Danny, General MacArthur did say, " the objective of war is victory, not prolonged indecision"
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