Flying Pink Unicorns

Here is how the democratic primary race may end.

First, Hillary absolutely cannot catch up to Obama in pledged delegates. Here is a piece (thanks Bryan!) which outlines a long string of Hillary upsets and landslides from here on out

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240

Under this scenario, enormously favorable to Hillary, she ends up 58 delegates behind Obama. If Florida and Michigan re vote, which looks increasingly likely, Hillary will clean Obama's clock in Florida and probably win Michigan, and could cut this lead to almost nothing. But remember, this scenario has Hillary winning EVERY state from here on out, which simply won't happen. In other words, when all the voting is over in June, Obama will have more pledged delegates (and more popular votes) in all likelihood.

Under a more plausible scenario, Obama will be up more than a token number of delegates, but still short of the 2,025 needed for nomination without a lot of superdelegate support. Fill in your own scenarios using slate's delegate calculator,

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/, if you're really motivated.

Here's what I'm beginning to think may happen.

First, this race is very likely not to be decided until all the votes are cast. Even if Obama wins in Pennsylvania on April 22nd, Hillary's position will be strong enough that she's unlikely to be persuaded to drop out.

Second, there will likely be a re-vote in Michigan and Florida. The current situation, with neither state getting any delegates or superdelegates at the democratic convention stinks on ice and everyone knows it. The "problem," is that those states are very favorable for Clinton, especially Florida, which she won in a landslide in January, even though no one campaigned. Seniors are her best demographic bloc, and Florida has a few.

So sometime in June all will be said and done and most likely Obama will have more pledged delegates and more votes overall than Hillary. At that point, the combined total of the pledged delegates he has earned in the primaries and caucuses plus the number of superdelegates who have said they will vote for him will be somewhat close to the 2,025 needed to be nominated. Let's make up a number and say he's 150 short. That's where Al Gore comes in.

With Bill Clinton an interested party, Gore is the most prominent democrat not directly involved in the race. He is thus in the best position to try and organize the superdelegates. Gore should, starting about today, reach out to the uncommitted superdelegates and say the following: Hey folks. Don't commit to either of them until mid-June. Let all the votes play out. Then, when its over and Obama is a given number short, say 150, Gore should get 175 superdelegates to agree in essence to vote for Obama on the conditions he outlines. Stay with me. Gore would (after disclosing his plans to all the superdelegates before earning their support) go to Obama and say, "Barack, I'm prepared to deliver you these 175 uncommitted superdelegates, which will give you the nomination. All you have to do in return is to give me your word, man to man, that you will pick Hillary as your #2, whether she accepts or not. If you don't agree, the race is in chaos, and you could lose the nomination." I think Obama would readily agree. This would (if the 175 superdelegates were believed), end the race and give Obama the nomination, regardless of Hillary's response.

Next, Gore can go to Hillary with an ultimatum. He'd say, "Hillary: I have 175 superdelegates who have promised me that they will vote for Obama, thus putting him over the 2,025, and giving him the nomination. Its over, he has won. Obama has privately promised me he will make you the Vice Presidential nominee. Agree to drop out now and it all ends, you get the # 2 slot, and we wipe the floor with McCain and live happily ever after. You're still young enough to run again. Disagree and you lose everything. The 175 superdelegates will vote for Obama anyway (think they would change their minds if Obama agreed to Gore's plans and she didn't?) and there will be a ton of general bitterness towards you. You lost the delegate race, you lost the popular vote. Yes, yes, you were very close. Trust me, I know the feeling!!!! Under those conditions, Obama will likely be DISinclined to pick you as the Vice President, and I know I will speak for a lot of people who wouldn't want him to.

Hillary may conceivably not play along, but if the 175 superdelegates stuck together she'd lose any floor fight, and would, I think, be vilified by democrats all the while, spoiling her chances competely for the future. Heads she gets the V.P. slot, tails she gets nothing.

Gore's role is necessary because the 175 people need to be organized, and he's in by far the best position to do it. So I call on Al to get to work!