Well, if I'm going to comment on matters political, I suppose I have to predict what's going to happen in Iowa this Thursday. My first thought is to say, "how the heck should I know." But, bravely marching on:
1) Democrats-- I'm going (1) Obama; (2) Edwards; and (3) Clinton, but a VERY close race. Hillary loses because Iowa's rules are unusual, second choices matter, and she's not the SECOND choice of very many. But any of the combinations is possible and I have ZERO confidence in this "prediction."
2) GOP-- (1) Huckabee; (2) Romney; (3) someone else (way, WAY behind).
I expect Huckabee to win this pretty easily (at least 5-8 points, maybe more). He has suffered under the glare he has received as a suddenly viable candidate, but Romney has suffered more. It may be my own biases creeping in, but seeing how blatantly Romney has switched his positions to be in tune with what GOP primary voters has truly not been a pretty sight. Iowa also rewards the religious on the GOP side, ask 1988 caucus winner Pat Robertson!
This prediction I DO feel confident in. Which, of course, means it could be spectacularly wrong, as my political prognostication record is.
One last word on political predictions before I shut up. Every 4 years people make them. Every 4 years they get them VERY wrong. Yet the media rushes to these same people 4 years later to make predictions without ever stopping and asking: why should was ask them, what do they know?" The media all but annointed Howard Dean the nominee last time around. Um, he didn't come close. So the truth is, as a lawyer I work with has said, "the future is hard to predict. Especially when it hasn't happened yet."
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2 comments:
Danny, what about Fred Thompson, who will carry N . Hampshire,
S. Carolina, who do u like personally?
Thompson will not finish in the top 4 in New Hampshire. McCain & Romney will be ahead of him for certain, and probably Huckabee and Ron Paul as well. From where I sit, he's nowhere.
I don't "like" any of the GOP candidates, because the party is in the grip of ideological madness. I dislike McCain the least, by far. I think he's mostly an honorable man, though in embracing Bush these last few years he has lost a lot of the respect I had for him.
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