Flying Pink Unicorns

The upcoming Obama landslide:

My democratic friends (to borrow a phrase often used by a certain Republican Senator), relax and believe. Obama will not only win, but win in a blowout. There will be no suspense on election night. As a result of the Obama landslide, the Congressional landslide may be even worse than I predicted in my post of 10-19.

The Blue states (won by Kerry) will be called early by the networks. Swing states, though not called right away (the networks desperately want to avoid a repeat of 2000 where they called Florida for Gore than retracted it), will be called fairly quickly for Obama.

Here is where I expect the race to end up.

As of now, Obama is up by 7 points nationally.

Obama will exceed whatever his national poll numbers are the Sunday before election day. He will actually outperform his polls, by 1-5 points. There are several reasons for this:

1) Even if the national poll numbers tighten from the current approximate Obama 7 point lead, as they well might, early voting prevents that from fully translating into election day vote. There have already been long lines at polling places, and election day is 2 weeks away! More than 1/3 of voters will vote before election day, according to estimates. In 2004, there were about 121.5 million votes. I expect more than 140 million votes to be cast this election day, possibly 150 million! Interest is considerably higher among all groups for this year's election, and of course black voter turnout will soar from sea to shining sea.

This 140 million estimate of mine means I expect more than 40 million people to have voted by election day, many of them by the middle of next week, thus blunting the impact of any move in the polls.

2) Obama will simply outperform his poll numbers in any event. This will represent (i) the enthusiasm gap; and (ii) Obama's superior ground game in literally every swing state. The enthusiasm gap means that some weak McCain "supporters" will stay home, while Obama supporters, particularly young and minority voters (not just black) will turn out from coast to coast in gigantic, unprecedented, colossal, breathtaking numbers, and will overwhelmingly support Obama. Young voters turned out in fairly big numbers in 2004, helping John Kerry receive 59 million votes, a number higher than I think his campaign anticipated. Bush just got even more people to the polls.

The superior ground game will be telling in swing states. The pollsters are having a very difficult time predicting which sporadic voters will bother showing up this time around. Obama's supporters will be more likely to show up than McCain's supporters, due to greater electoral enthusiasm, and the better GOTV (get out the vote) effort by team Obama.

In 2008, young voters will turnout at far far higher rates, everywhere. I have absolutely drank the Kool Aid on this point. Youth turnout will blow away everyone's projections. Worth at least a full point above the national polls for Obama.

Obama voters have always been more enthusiastic than McCain supporters. Palin radically decreased that gap, but did not eliminate it. She's still a rock star among the foolish GOP base, but as for independents, where McCain once held great appeal, not so much. On the other hand, Obama's supporters remain as enthusiastic as ever.

3) Yes, there may be a "Bradley effect" where people tell pollsters they're voting for the black candidate, but in the privacy of the voting booth don't. However, pollsters have largely debunked this effect for any elections after about 1992, and the factors above will simply outweigh a 1-2 point Bradley effect.

In summary, Obama is up about 7 points now. If he's up 5 the Sunday before election day (just taking a wild guess) he'll win by my 7-8 points, at least (I predicted an 8 point win back in my post of June 14th). If the national polls widen, and Obama's up by 8-9 the Sunday before the election, then you'll definitely have my landslide.

Since its fun, I'll now predict which states Obama will carry. I'm confident in each state predicted, except where noted.

I'll group Obama's states into 4 categories:

1. The blue states-- the states won by Kerry. Obama will carry every state which was won by John Kerry, all of them. I'm sure of it. These states are: Hawaii, Washington State, DC, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine.

These 19 states, plus DC, total 252 electoral votes.

2. The sure thing red states. These states were carried by Bush in 2004 and, I submit, are sure things for Obama. He will certainly win all of them:

Virginia (13). That Virginia's 13 electoral votes are now certain to go to Obama has caused abject panic, desperation and despair in the McCain camp, and caused them to make a desperate, pull out all the stops, put all your money on one spin of the roulette wheel play for Pennsylvania. Because Kerry's 252 electoral votes, plus Virginia's 13 = 265, plus Iowa's 7 electoral votes, which are also certain for Obama, put Obama over the magic # of 270, McCain simply must win one or more of the above blue states, or he has no chance at all of winning the election. Virginia has played an absolutely crucial role in this campaign. The size of the upcoming Obama blowout means its just one red state to flip among many, but it has had a hugely out sized role in the McCain camp's thinking. It seems a bit odd to say this, given that Ohio has 20 votes, and Florida 27, but McCain simply has no answer for Virginia. Its the swing state that would, along with Iowa, singularly swing even a tied election to Obama's favor. Who would have imagined that Virginia would play such a huge role in 2008? Oh wait, I did.


Colorado (9). The swing state everyone foresaw. Obama continues to run behind his national numbers here, but not by a lot. He has led every Colorado poll since a 2 point McCain lead on September 14th in one poll. It won't be a landslide, but Obama will win here.

Iowa (7). As I explained in June, McCain never had a shot here. It was tough for any Republican this year, but especially tough for McCain, who (correctly) hates ethanol subsidies. Obama is up 12 in the polls at the moment, and will win the state by that much or more. Iowa is the surest state for Obama that wasn't won by Kerry. The McCain campaign's decision to spend some time and money in Iowa was a mind-boggling error.

New Mexico (5). I was very doubtful about New Mexico in June, but it has polled hugely well for Obama. He's up more than 8 points now, and has led every poll but one since August. Its been locked up.

These 286 electoral votes are locked up for Obama (and thus the election). Even if the national polls tighten to a tie, Obama would likely win each of these states. I note that if the national polls tightened immediately to a tie, and stayed there, most most unlikely, Obama would win few if any of the states I give him below.

3) The red states which I predict Obama will win. These states could, conceivably, end up being won by McCain.

Florida (27). Obama is polling several points behind his national numbers, and even though early voting has just started, a quick, big, sustained move in the national polls in McCain's favor could turn Florida red. McCain's campaign has long been way behind Obama's in organization in Florida, but they are apparently getting their act together. Florida is # 2 on McCain's list right now (behind, incredibly, Pennsylvania), and the margin may be close here.

Ohio (20). Ditto Florida, except that early voting, in huge numbers, started last week.

Both Florida and Ohio have started early voting. In both Obama holds a very very narrow lead. In a landslide, both will go blue. In a race Obama wins but much narrower than I expect vote-wise, both will likely stay red.

Nevada (5). Nevada is polling very close, but I don't believe the polls here. Obama will win Nevada, and his margin will surprise.

North Carolina (15), Indiana (11) (probably-- I want hedge room on only one state, and Indiana is the one), Missouri (11).

I predict Obama will win each of these (with my fingers crossed). However, he will only win Indiana in a real landslide, and the same is probably true of Missouri and North Carolina. Since I predict a landslide, I predict he turns each of these states blue. Indiana is one of the reddest states going, and North Carolina's red as well. But in an Obama landslide North Carolina (and Missouri) are sure to turn blue, and Indiana is better than 50-50.

Of the 51 "states" (counting DC), I am most likely to be wrong about these last 3.

There it is. I've laid out my current (and likely final, barring a huge, huge event) predictions for the election and each state on the line. Except for Indiana, I'll take my shots if I prove wrong. I have Obama winning 375 electoral votes. That's 5 more than Clinton in 1992, and 4 less than Clinton in 1996. So my predictions aren't wild based on recent history.

Final thought-- long shots in an Obama landslide are West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia and Mississippi. Very unlikely in all cases. I predict each of these stay red.