Flying Pink Unicorns

Insane early voting turnout in North Carolina.

According to the main Charlotte, North Carolina newspaper, as of Sunday October 26th, nearly 1.1 million people have voted early, as compared to 984,000 early votes during the entire early voting period in 2004. Not the comparable period, the entire period.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/politics/story/280450.html

Now this isn't really surprising. In 2004, North Carolina was not a swing state at all, it was safely in Bush's column. In contrast, and to the surprise of nearly everyone who follows these things, the polls in North Carolina are almost dead even, and it has been hotly contested, with visits from all 4 people on the tickets.

Still, that is quite the increase. Of the early voters thus far, 58% are registered democrats, while 25% are registered Republicans. So clearly registered democrats are much more enthusiastic than Republicans. However, North Carolina does have many more registered democrats than Republicans. I estimate based on looking at January 2008 figures that the NC electorate is 48% democratic, 32% Republican, and 20 percent other. So the 58% number is far less stunning than it first appears. Still, its there.

In addition, as you might expect, black voters have disproportionately voted early. Approximately 28% of early voters as of now are black, even though they are just 21% of North Carolina's population and were 19% of North Carolina's electorate in 2004. That 19% number will certainly climb for 2008. It is precisely that increase which gives Obama hope in North Carolina, and may spell doom for Senator Liddy Dole (Bob's wife) who is in real trouble in her reelection bid.