Flying Pink Unicorns

Huge polling day for Obama.

As we wind into the home stretch of this campaign, which began when Hillary announced for President just 6 months after President Lincoln was assassinated in 1865, the talking points of the GOP, and many a pundit is, "the race is closing, the race is closing, THE RACE IS CLOSING. It isn't.

There were a bunch of national polls, counting tracking polls (polls which are continuously taken, and the previous 3-days' results released) released today. 9 of them. Obama is up an average of approximately 6 points. One of them, by Pew, had Obama by 15. That's so out of reach of the other polls, that I discounted it to 12 (I was probably being generous to Obama there). Anyway, the national polls may have tightened about 1 point in the last 3-4 days. Then maybe not. The margins are all about the same.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

So the national polls were "favorable" to Obama only insofar as they confirmed his lead. Nothing changed.

The state polls, however, were generally favorable. Even where the polls were favorable to McCain, they were in states where the predicted electoral votes were most most unlikely to shift. By this I mean that if Texas moves from McCain + 10 to McCain + 17, that's a good poll for McCain but it doesn't matter. Ditto New York going from Obama + 26 to Obama + 17.

Arkansas: McCain + 10. Irrelevant, but a "good" poll for Obama.

Colorado: Obama + 8.

Florida: Obama + 7 (McCain has closed near to even in the Sunshine state, so this actually has real significance)

Indiana: Obama + 1 (Indiana is a tough get, so + 1 is reasonably good. Not great, but good).

Mississippi: McCain + 8. Ok, that's a good # for McCain. Although McCain is hugely likely to win Mississisppi, the margin of victory in the presidential race may decide one of the two Senate races, where the democrat needs a massive Obama turnout to win.

Montana: McCain + 4. This is a great result for Obama, making Montana in play in a landslide. It doesn't matter of course, Obama is terribly terribly unlikely to win narrowly and carry Montana.

Nevada: Obama + 4, + 10. Two polls, one good, one absolutely fantastic.

New Hampshire: Obama + 11, Obama + 25. Two polls, one very very good, one hugely outlying. Still, the fact that there have been no polls in competitive red states (Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri) showing McCain way way up, is telling to me. Obama is very very likely to win New Hampshire, but 25 points is laughable.

New Jersey: Obama + 15. Sounds huge, but that's about right for New Jersey. Actually very mildly disappointing.

North Carolina: TIE. A good result for McCain, most recent polls have shown Obama narrowly ahead in the Tar Heel state.

Ohio: Two polls: Obama + 4, Obama + 9. One good poll, one great poll.

There have been 28 polls in Ohio in October. McCain has led in 5 of them, by 3, 2, 2, 1 and 1. Obama has led in 22 of them (one tie), by an average of 5.9 points. He has led in each of the last 7 polls, by an average of 6 points. That's a big body of polling and it clearly (not decisively, but clearly) favors Obama.

Pennsylvania: two polls: Obama + 7, Obama + 9. Excellent results for McCain, but only compared to past results. In this now must win state for McCain, where he has spent probably the most resources in the last two weeks (yes, more than Florida or Ohio), Obama has led every poll in Pennsylvania since a tie released on September 17. That's 27 polls in a row, with 11 of them in double digits. So these results, though good news for McCain, almost certainly won't make Pennsylvania remotely competitive. Having said that, it does appear that McCain's huge effort in Pennsylvania has had some results in closing the state a little bit.

Wisconsin: Obama + 9. The second straight sub-double digit lead for Obama in Wisconsin. McCain hasn't led a poll in Wisconsin since May. Not a one.