Flying Pink Unicorns

My thoughts on the Congressional elections, now and in the future.

Never too early to think about future elections, right?

A friend of mine just wrote to me and suggested that he/she thought that the GOP might have a shot at taking back at least one house in the 2010 midterms. I vigorously disagree, regardless of who wins the presidential election and (within reason) regardless of how well the democrats do in the congressional elections. I'd be absolutely shocked if the next president doesn't have a democratic House & Senate all 4 years.

First, even if McCain wins, and certainly if he loses, the Republicans are about to have a disastrous election. I have fully drunk the Kool Aid on this point. The Democrats, for the second election in a row, will have big gains, possibly huge gains, in both chambers of Congress.

As of right now, the democrats have a 51-49 majority in the Senate (counting Joe Lieberman as a democrat, because he caucuses with the democrats, meaning he votes for democrats to have the leadership positions. Following the upcoming GOP bloodbath, the democrats will have between 56-60 seats in the Senate, probably about 58.

Taking a shot at predicting individual races, I predict that the Republicans will not win a single democratic held Senate seat. That's a laughably easy prediction. The democrats are only defending 12 Senate seats, whereas the GOP is defending 22. This is because the GOP had big gains in the Senate in the 2002 elections. All of the 12 Senate seats currently held by democrats are extremely safe (99+% chance for the democrats to hold) with the exceptions of Louisiana (a red state in which Mary Landreau squeaked home in 2002) and New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg is quite old and not terribly popular). But both are way ahead in the polls, and appear to be shoe-ins.

In contrast, of the 22 seats that the GOP is defending, the democrats are essentially certain to take over the seats in:

1) New Mexico (open seat) (formerly Pete Domenici): Tom Udall is way ahead in the polls, and it looks like Obama will win New Mexico, giving him a bit of a boost.

2) Colorado (open seat, previously held by the entirely forgettable Wayne Allard): Mark Udall (yes, Tom's brother ) is out in front by 8. Obama is likely to win or at least be super-close in Colorado, so either a boost or no drag from the presidential contest.

3) New Hampshire (incumbent John Sununu). Sununu has never been popular in New Hampshire, a formerly swing state now fairly blue. Bush's name is absolute mud in New Hampshire, and the Iraq war hugely unpopular. His democratic opponent is former Governor Jeanne Shaheen. Shaheen is only up 8 or so in the polls so there's definitely room for Sununu to close. The disastrous news for him is the presidential election. Obama will win New Hampshire by more than 5 for certain, and probably more than 10. It will be very difficult for him to go against that strong a headwind. If he were popular, he could. He isn't, and he won't.


4) Virginia (open seat, formerly John Warner). Former Governor John Warner has been up by more than 20 in every recent poll. This race is a sure thing. As I predicted back in June. Incredibly, I wouldn't be surprised if the giant Warner victory gives OBAMA a point or two on election day.

These 4 seats are just about sure things for the democrats. Here are the other contested races, along with my predictions:

A) Minnesota: Al Franken barely leads in the polls over incumbent Norm Coleman. I predict Franken wins. First, Obama will win Minnesota by at least 8 and probably more. Second, there is an independent on the ballot who is likely to siphon off a few net percent from the GOP incumbent Coleman. But I'm not at all confident.

B) Alaska: Incumbent Ted (Bridge to nowhere) Stevens is currently on trial. The conventional wisdom is if he is convicted he's toast and if acquitted he has a real shot. I agree with the conventional wisdom. Stevens has been in office forever, and has universal name recognition. However, McCain will win Alaska big, which complicates things slightly.

C) Oregon: Incumbent Gordon Smith has never been real popular. Oregon is a blue state that Obama will win easily. Smith is nowhere near 50% in the polls, and as the incumbent, he should be. He's in a world of hurt, and Challenger Merkley will likely win here.

D) North Carolina: Incumbent Liddy Dole, up in the polls several weeks ago, is down nowadays. And Obama is pouring resources into NC. Dole's in real trouble, but don't count her out. 70-30 that challenger Hagan wins.

There are 4 GOP leaning seats where the democrats have a chance (Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky and Texas). These will stay GOP absent an Obama blowout. If, however, Obama DOES blow McCain out, a few of these could surprise and change hands.

So I'm predicting a 7 or 8 seat gain by the democrats in the Senate, leaving them with 58 or 59, just short of a filibuster proof majority of 60.

In the House, the democrats currently have a majority of 235-199, or a 36-seat majority. There is talk of the democrats gaining more than 20 seats. The Evans Novak political report states that Republicans are hoping to keep losses to less than 20 seats. Let's use that 20 seat number. That would give the democrats a 56-seat majority. Even given that some of these will likely fall in a normal 2010 election cycle, as democrats would be winning seats in areas not really hospitable to them, that is an awfully big mountain to climb!

Yes, historically, there have been midterms that would have been sufficient to deal that kind of blow. But Obama's timing is almost comically good. The huge fiscal and regulatory efforts which have already taken place, and will take place in the future, together with the sizable fiscal stimulus that is coming, probably from the lame duck session to come after the elections, otherwise by 2/15, will lift the economy out of huge recession sometime in 2009 most likely.

Even if it is late in 2009, and even if the economy still feels weak deep into 2010 (certainly possible) I think its unlikely Obama will get much of the blame. If not, and barring of course any number of other things which can and will happen, like foreign policy crises, he's unlikely to be deeply unpopular. And with a 55 ish seat mountain to climb in the House and about an 8 seat mountain in the Senate, I just don't see it as more than 5% likely that the GOP captures even one house, because even IF the economy totally craters and Obama is at 30% popularity, it STILL would be a real mountain to climb, and still be unlikely (though then clearly more than 5% likely). I

In short, in a good case (economy recovers strongly, no cities disappear), almost no chance. In a reasonable case (outlined above) there is a very small chance that the GOP takes over either or both houses, as outlined above. In a poor case (outlined above) it is merely somewhat unlikely. In godawful case (depression, HUGE terrorist attack, huge congressional blunders ala 1994 health care) still well under 50-50 because of the size of the mountain. Even if MCCAIN WINS and limits GOP losses, its still a huge mountain. Plus, then he's the incumbent president.

I sayeth that it is HIGHLY HIGHLY likely that the democrats will control both houses of congress through least 2012. And if I'm mostly right about the timing of the economic recovery (begins around 3/09 or 4/09, and is a real recovery before the end of next Summer) the Ds could consolidate their hold, and thus maintain a stranglehold on the Congress through at least 2014. The upcoming electoral disaster is the real deal for the GOP, and their Congressional wing is headed right down the toilet. Good riddance.