Flying Pink Unicorns

Two parts to this post: Palin's stellar debate, and the big movement in the latest polls towards Obama.

1) Palin's stellar debate.

Well, she did it again. Palin showed a solid command of the issues, a wondrous way of relating to ordinary people, excellent use of folksy language, and a fine ability to attack Obama. She was ON ON ON! I still think, as I did after her unbelievable speech at the GOP Convention, that she is a wondrous, enormously inspiring figure. I can't improve on what I wrote after her Convention speech: "Anyone who can watch that [debate] and not be inspired by what that remarkable lovely, and just plain remarkable woman has done, well I can't really help them."

Expectations were low following her disastrous tv interviews, and she so grossly exceeded those expectations as to be silly.

Having said all this, nothing has changed. She is comically unsuited to high office. An excellent debate performance does not change the fact that she got her passport last year, couldn't manage to name the newspapers and magazines she's read, and that except for energy she has shown me precisely zero original thought on any issue at all. Yes she was able to recite the lines she was given. She doesn't understand the issues of the day; she proved that in the interviews. Here she was able to recite her lines. She still has no longstanding record of thinking, writing, talking about complex issues, as Reagan did, as Clinton did, as Gore did, as W did NOT, as Bush 41 DID. She's in the Bush 43 camp-- never deigning to think about the hard issues of the day. Her debate performance, however, I thought was marvelous. I am overhearing the pundits making fun of her folksy language. Look, I'm an extremely knowledgeable, extremely smart northeastern liberal egghead. I'm a LOT more impressed by well thought out 14 point plans which evince a lot of reading, thinking and studying. Think Hillary's health care plan. Or Gore's global warming plans. But I'm not an ordinary voter. For an ordinary voter, the caricatureure of Saturday Night Live was nowhere to be found in the debate. Instead, an extraordinary woman, who has already accomplished a lot, and seems to at least understand what I'm all about, middle class voter, emerged. Of course, McCain's program offers nothing whatsoever to such a voter, but don't blame Sarah Palin for that.

Palin gets a 10 for her Convention speech, an 8 (at least) for her campaign appearances, but a devastating 2 for the tv interviews. She earned a solid 8 tonight. I'd personally give her about a 3 for substance, but an 8 or 9 for style. Biden did better on substance (of course, most anyone would), but not nearly as well on style. Despite her big drop in the polls as people realized she is wholly unqualified to be president should something happen to McCain she retains a nearly unique ability to communicate with ordinary people. Bill Clinton was quite good, Reagan was better. Palin is in Reagan's class here (on style, NOT substance), which is saying a LOT.

I note that the first insta-poll of "who won" shows Biden winning 46-21 among undecideds. That's great for Obama if true, but well I have my doubts.

I boldly predict the debate will have almost zero impact on the national or state polls.

2) the big movement in the latest polls towards Obama.


Obama clearly leads in the national polls and in key battlegrounds. And Palin's star has badly faded, and the big McCain bounce following the GOP Convention has disappeared, with interest.. The debate tonight will help that a little, but I predict not a lot.

First Palin. Although quite popular among base Republicans, in a Pew poll just released, only 37% said she would be ready to take over for McCain. That's an atrocious number for a new and enormously compelling figure. People saw the clips from the tv interviews, and gagged. The debate performance will help somewhere here, but the days of her being a hugely popular figure for swing voters and conservative democrats are probably over, at least for this campaign.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-palinappeal2-2008oct02,0,7842658.story

As for the polls, Obama is now up in every recent national poll, by an average of a little over 5 points. This lead has now translated into almost every swing state. Obama is up around 2 in Virginia, Ohio(!) and Florida (!!!!!) In each of these states, won by Bush twice, Obama is running slightly behind his national numbers. Its not so much that he's strong in these states (he isn't, really), but that's he's up 6 points nationally. Obama's up a tad more than 4 in Colorado, where he has run strong.

Obama's even running about even in North Carolina, a red state which even Clinton, a fellow southerner, didn't win either time despite 5 and 9 point national victories. Yet Obama's dead even.

Politico.com reported today that McCain is pulling out of Michigan. I am surprised by that-- I thought he'd pull out of Pennsylvania, but would stay in Michigan to the bitter end. Public polls have Obama up an average of 7 in Michigan, but the last 3 polls have him up 10, 13 and3. In fact, except for an outlier poll showing a tie, Obama has led in Michigan in every reasonable poll since August except for one. So Michigan was always a stretch for McCain. Still, with 17 electoral votes, an unpopular democratic governor, and an awful economy, I'm surprised he's not staying.

So right now virtually all of the action is in states Bush won. Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, New Mexico (which was really close in 2000 and 2004), Nevada and North Carolina. The only blue states still receiving any McCain love are New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and perhaps Minnesota. And each of these, except 4 ev New Hampshire, are looking increasingly out of reach. Obama's even or ahead in various red states, McCain is not ahead in a single blue state, and is even(ish) only in New Hampshire.

Anyway, Obama is now up by more than 4 points in every state Kerry won (252 of the needed 270 electoral votes) except for New Hampshire. Obama's up almost 7 points on average in Pennsylvania, even in you throw out an outlier poll showing him up 15 there. McCain has not led in a single poll in Pennsylvania since April, and only a very few polls have him within 4 points. So PA also looks like a real reach unless McCain wins the popular vote, and probably by more than 1 point.

Colorado looks great for Obama, and for the first time in this election cycle, Florida and Ohio look reasonably decent.. Things can still change radically, and possibly will, but time is running out on McCain, and as of this instant in time Obama would win more than 330 electoral votes.