Flying Pink Unicorns

State-by-state analysis of 2008 election as of 10-16-08.

First some overall predictions. I still think Obama will win. Barring (god forbid) a terrorist attack or big foreign policy crisis, this election is over. Even with such a terrible event Obama is highly likely to win. This year is just too tough for a Republican, and the gigantic financial markets crisis and various bailouts, and McCain's inconsistent and erratic response to them, has sealed the deal. Obama will win, and probably by at least 8.

Second preliminary matter. Larry in CA asked what would happen if between now and election day either Obama or McCain were to die. Excellent question Larry.

The rules for who appears on a ballot are state laws, not federal. So as an initial matter, each state's laws would apply. But the national party would have a say. Both the democrats and Republicans have various rules regarding filling a vacancy on a national ballot.

So the short answer is that the parties would decide the matter. At a guess the democrats would nominate Joe Biden, and Hillary would be his Vice. I have no earthly idea what the Republicans would do. None whatsoever.


See this for more information.

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/content/political-nbc/story.aspx?content_id=2355a9a8-a0ef-472e-89d2-b638c8b65783

Now to the purpose of this post. I refer back to my post of June 14. Here, I will lay out where I thought the various states would be then, and how they are polling now.

Conveniently, I predicted an Obama 8-point win. As of the moment Obama's up just less than 7 in the national polls, though I expect that to rise in the coming days to about 9. Anyway, he's ahead in the polls now by as much as I thought he would be when I wrote the June 14 post, so its pretty much an apples-to-apples comparison.

One quick note before I leap into the states. Every article recently that discusses money at all mentions repeatedly how big Obama's financial advantage has been. With odd exceptions, McCain has consistently been badly outspent in state after state, week after week. That huge Obama edge has worn McCain out.


1. Florida: June prediction: Obama by 3. Polls now: Obama by 4.8.

I actually have a reason why there is an error in Florida. From what I have read, the McCain campaign is in more disarray in Florida than in other states. Governor Crist, who enthusiastically endorsed McCain before the crucial GOP Florida primary, has kept his distance. The Chairman of the Florida GOP has been publicly apoplectic about the lack of a GOP Florida ground game. I can't begin to overstate how stunning this is. Any idiot knew that Florida would be a battleground. Yet the McCain campaign seems to have brought a knife to a gunfight. Actually, team Obama has apparently spent an absurd amount of money in Florida. They made a much bigger play for it than I anticipated, and it has shown in the polls. Apparently Team Obama is loaded for Bear for election day, the McCain campaign not so much.

Anyway, if the polls hold Obama will beat my 3-point prediction here and win by more like 5 points because of this disarray. But I was (as of now) within less than 2 points. Not bad.

2. Ohio: June prediction: Obama by 3. Polls now: Obama by 3.4.

*bows* The Obama people have played just as hard here as I (and anyone with 2 brain cells to rub together) expected.

3. Pennsylvania: June prediction: Obama by 14. Polls now: Obama by 13.6.

*bows*. The Midwest has moved very sharply towards Obama in the last month, more so than the national polls would indicate. As of now Pennsylvania is blue + 7.

On the other hand, I and a group of others visited northeast Philadelphia voters. Its a swing area. I met several undecideds who were not well informed about the issues (to say the least). There were also concerns expressed about race. On the other hand, each and every one of them were very dissatisfied about the economy (despite their well-manicured lawns and nice middle class homes). I can't imagine a huge % of these people breaking for Obama. On the other hand, I can imagine a huge % of them breaking for McCain even less.

Oddly, both sides continue to play hard for Pennsylvania, very hard. The day I went canvassing, I also saw Obama at a rally. He was at 4 Philly rallies that day. All sorts of surrogates are there, and a lot of money is being spent. I predicted that McCain would give up on PA. That prediction was way wrong. He should have. He's given up on some other Midwestern states, but everyone seems to insist Pa is closer than the polls. The last 7 polls all have Obama up by double digits. I don't understand the level of attention Pennsylvania is receiving.

4. Michigan: June prediction: Obama by 11. Polls now: Obama by 10.5

McCain very publicly pulled out of Michigan last week. Since then, the 2 major polls there have Obama up by 16. So it looks like my prediction, though accurate right now, will be well off by election day. Obama should win by north of 14 here. McCain's public pullout of Michigan is easily the stupidest state-by-state resource allocation of this election cycle. It is simply baffling. Obviously McCain couldn't win it if Obama is up 7 in the national polls. But he could have won it if Obama was up 2 or so, I think. At least made it in play.

5. Virginia: June prediction Obama by 7. Polls now: Obama by 8.6.

Yup, I'll take my bows here. I've been talking up Virginia as a key swing state/democratic pickup since May. Nonstop. And I'm hugely right. I basically promised in June that Obama was in Virginia and playing for keeps. I don't know that the McCain campaign really believed that until later in the Summer. Well, they believe it now. The Old Dominion is probably out of reach absent a huge change in the entire tenor of the campaign. Virginia hasn't gone blue since 1964, and its going to go blue by north of 5 points in 2008. Things really are changing (and yes, Virginia is changing).

6. Missouri: June prediction: Obama by 2. Polls now: Obama by 1.8.

*bows* Missouri has moved sharply recently, and the Obama campaign has leaked that its going to pour more money into it. I wouldn't, but it won't matter.

7. Minnesota: June prediction: Obama by 14. Polls now: Obama by 8.7

McCain has poured a ton of money into Minnesota and it shows here. This is the first of my predictions that, as of now, gets a giant raspberry. And I think its because of the huge amount of attention showed by the McCain campaign.

8. Wisconsin: June prediction: Obama by 13. Polls now: Obama by 10.4

To a lesser extent what I wrote about Minnesota holds for Wisconsin.

9. Colorado: Prediction: Obama by 10. Polls now: Obama by 5.8.

Oops. I have been all over Colorado as a crucial swing state. So has everyone else. The democrats didn't hold their Convention in Denver by accident. I'm a little surprised Obama isn't closer to my prediction. Still, he's up, and not by a little. Obama is running behind his national polls here. Is that really going to hold? I doubt it. I look for Obama to win Colorado by at least 7, probably 8.

10. Iowa: June prediction: Obama by 13. Polls now: Obama by 11.8.

*bows* 7 of the last 9 polls here have Obama up by double digits. One outlier has it tied. Incredibly, McCain continues to play hard here. It is the second most bizarre decision of state-by-state resource allocation. Because of McCain's correct and courageous opposition to ethanol subsidies, he has never been popular here. I told the world this in June, and I wasn't saying anything original in the slightest. I'm perplexed.

11. Arkansas: June prediction: McCain by 5. Polls now: McCain + 10.

But these polls are old. There has not been an Arkansas poll in October. My guess is a current Arkansas poll would show McCain with a 5-7 point lead. My June prediction may yet bear out. But who cares?

12. New Mexico: June prediction: Obama by 4. Polls now: Obama by 8.4.

Obama has consistently outpolled my prediction, and most observers think New Mexico's 5 electoral votes are safely his. The high % of Hispanic voters make this state tough to predict. But Obama seems to be doing quite well with them.

13. Nevada: June prediction: Obama by 4. Polls now: Obama by 3.

*bows* Obama's great polling success in New Mexico bodes well for his election day performance in Nevada. But Obama is still running behind his national polling numbers in Nevada, so this state is still very much in play. Obama's certain to win it in a landslide.,

14. New Hampshire: June prediction: Obama by 7. Polls now: Obama by 10.

McCain has lost much of his appeal here. Obama will win it by more than 7, even if he declines in the national vote. Although red compared to the northeast, New Hampshire is still in the Northeast, where Bush's name, and the Iraq war, are mud. By positioning himself fairly close to Bush on economic matters, he threw away his chance at New Hampshire.

15. North Carolina: June prediction: McCain by 3. Polls now: Obama by 1.2

Oops. I didn't expect Obama to play as hard for the Tar Heel state as he has. I guess the Virginia connection mattered. I still think McCain may pull North Carolina out. But in a landslide, North Carolina will come along for the ride.

Now for a few non-swing states, where I made predictions we can laugh at.

A. California: June prediction: Obama by 15. Polls now: Obama by 14.5.

Yeah, I got it. Big deal.

B. Texas: June prediction: McCain by 8. Polls now: McCain by 12.7.

Expect the final results to be single digits.

C. New York: June prediction: Obama by 26. Polls now: Obama by 22.7.

I'd call that a small miss if I cared.

D. Illinois: June prediction: Obama by 30! Polls now Obama by 18.

Now that's a miss!!! I am really surprised Illinois is polling 4 points redder than New York, given that its Obama's home state. Weird. Completely unimportant, but weird.

E. Georgia: June prediction: McCain by 6. Polls now: McCain by 7.

This will likely close, actually, as Obama begins to put more money into Georgia. And since it looks like black and core democratic turnout will be extremely high, Georgia could provide an election night stunner and turn blue.

F. New Jersey: June prediction: Obama by 16. Polls now: Obama by 11.3.

Wow, that's a real miss, as of now.

Despite a few embarrassing misses, and not even mentioning Indiana as a swing state, I had the 2008 election about right-- if current polls hold.