Republicans all across the land are forming a circular firing squad, as they prepare to do what democrats normally do, and destroy their own. Its very real, its going to happen, and it WILL be pretty. Indeed, it will be a beautiful thing to watch.
The second most important reason I want Obama to win (behind only health care reform) is to encourage this very crack-up in the GOP. For too long the GOP has lost touch with reality and common sense, as Andrew has been beating into me for years. A big old fashion out-behind-the-woodshed whooping is just what the doctor ordered to get the party to rethink its principles.
There are many causes for the coming crack-up, but needless to say they center around the likelihood of McCain losing next week, and the magnitude of the likely upcoming GOP losses in both houses of Congress.
First, many Republicans are furious with the scatter shot nature of the McCain campaign.
One week the focus is on Obama's "shady" connections with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers. Despite Sarah Palin saying, and I quote, that Obama "pals around with terrorists," McCain has ruled off limits his 20-year long very real association with Reverend Wright. This bizarre decision has infuriated many Republicans (and rightfully so-- if you're going to do personal attacks, why do largely weak and ineffective ones and decline, presumably based on principle, to do the actually effective attacks?) After all, Obama had very little association with Bill Ayers, serving on some boards with him. In contrast, he undeniably had a long and close association with Reverend Wright. Wright married him and Michelle and baptised his kids! The baffling decision to leave Wright off limits has puzzled and infuriated Republicans.
The next week the emphasis is on McCain the "fighter." He fought and suffered in Vietnam, and he'll fight for you.
The next week Obama is young and inexperienced and untested. McCain is none of these things.
Now we've entered the Joe the Plumber phase of the campaign, where Obama has a secret plan to raise taxes on patriotic Americans (who of course live in red states, or red areas of blue or purple states, and emphatically NOT in blue areas of blue states). A lot of the emphasis now is on taxes. Not a bad theme for Republicans, keep lying through their teeth about taxes, its worked from them for years.
Nevertheless, it has been a theme of the week campaign.
In addition, there have been some strange resource allocation decisions. McCain made a big early effort for Michigan, then pulled out. I vigorously disagreed with this decision (from McCain's perspective) at the time, as I thought Michigan was the easiest state to flip from the ones Kerry won, and has 17 electoral votes.
The really insane decision was to keep competing in Iowa, where McCain has never led a single poll, in part because of his opposition to ethanol subsidies. I have commented on this before and have nothing new to add-- they are still spending precious time, and fairly precious money (if little money) on Iowa, which they not only won't win, but won't come within 10 points of winning.
In contrast, Obama has stayed vigorously on message:
a) Bush sucks;
b) McCain agrees with Bush on many areas;
c) I'll cut taxes on 95% of Americans;
d) I'll raise taxes on those over 200k or 250k.
There's been more to Obama's campaign, but by and large this has been the main theme since July. They have not shifted emphasis over and over again.
In any event, the great GOP-crack-up has begun. It had its clearest manifestation when Elizabeth Dole, incumbent Senator from North Carolina, ran an an in her Senate race strongly implying that Obama will win.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/23/gops-argument-dont-give-president-obama-a-blank-check/In this ad, Republican Liddy Dole says that if the democrat wins they will hold the White House and Congress, and thus get a blank check. Its a perfectly fair ad.
Needless to say, this is something which can't possibly please the McCain campaign. Now imho, McCain doesn't give a rat's ass about the GOP in Congress, and wouldn't really if he was winning! Still, party discipline is supposed to forbid these things. There's an old saying in politics, that Republicans generally take very seriously: you either hang together or hang separately. But individual Republicans right now are scurrying like scared children from what they perceive as the sky falling all around them.
In fact, The pre-obituaries have begun. A major article in the New York Times this past Sunday showed all of the different McCain messages during his campaign.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/magazine/26mccain-t.html?scp=1&sq=%22Robert%20Draper%22&st=cseSimilarly, David Frum wrote a piece in the Washington Post stating that McCain's lousy campaign has had awful consequences down ballot (Senate and House races).
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/23/AR2008102302081.html
In summary, as Politico put it, the GOP has formed a circular firing squad, with everyone blaming someone else.
2 comments:
I cant begin to describe how much joy it would bring me to see the GOP go 1964. :)
Justin
I can't help thinking that McCain didn't learn from Romney. If he had just been himself, he might've had a chance.
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