Flying Pink Unicorns

Israel and settlements

For those that haven't heard, Israel was in the news last week for its insane, idiotic, and counterproductive settlement policies.

Here's the background.  In Israel, Obama is seen as not really pro-Israel.  He dared to make a big speech in Cairo, and for other reasons.  Anyway, Hillary is really liked in Israel on her own merits and because Clinton was and is popular there.  Joe Biden is popular in Israel to those in the know.  Anyway, Biden was there last week, and met with Prime Minister Netanyahu.  He told him that we weren't happy about proposed settlement expansion plans.  While Biden was in Israel, Netanyahu's Interior Minister, a right-winger from the religious Shas party named Eli Yishai.  What's a bit ironic is that Shas has never been focused on the settlements at all, unlike Likud, but more on that some other day.

The fact that this announcement took place while the US Vice President was in the country caused a stir.  Israel apologized for the timing of the announcement, but not the substance of it.  Admirable honesty.  The only thing admirable about the whole Israeli settlement situation.

Here's my take on settlements.  I HATE them.  I think they are hugely counter to Israel's national security interests (and America's!), as well as being counter to Israel's economic interests.  I think, to quote Thomas Friedman, that the settlement policy is "insane," and has been for many years.

The US has long allowed Israel to go its idiotic way on the settlement issue. Oh, we bleat about and complain, and pound our chest and tut tut, but except briefly under Bush 41, when we threatened to suspend loan guarantees to Israel, we just talk and do nothing about it. Which is what Obama is highly likely to do. Which is why Israel feels free to keep building settlements.  AIPAC (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee), which is by far the largest and most organized Jewish pressure group, is mindlessly pro whatever an Israeli government does, especially a right-wing Israeli government. To AIPAC, its Israel right, wrong, or pro or contra US interests. AIPAC doesn't speak for mainstream American jews on settlements, which many American jews dislike or hate, but there it is.


In the US, there is no gain politically in OPPOSING Israeli settlements.  This was true even before 9-11.  Let's be honest: Who in America loves a Palestinian? An Arab? And AFTER 9-11? Oops.

So we give Israel around $3 billion a year in mostly military hardware, give it all sorts of diplomatic cover and get bitch slapped in return on the settlements. Year after year.  If I were president, they'd be told that if they built so much as one more living room in occupied territories they'd be persona non gratta. We'd pull our ambassador, for good, cut as much aid as congress would let me, stop giving them cover in the UN, and I'd seriously consider selling high tech arms to Egypt and Saudi Arabia (not Iran, obviously).  I'd show them that if you bitch slap the heavyweight champion, you just might get hurt badly. And hey, if I lost reelection? I'm sure I'd do fine on the lecture circuit, the boardroom circuit, etc. That's what a president with chutzpah would do. We're allies, these settlements are insane, and we bitterly oppose them. Build them at your peril.

In return for this admittedly very tough stance, I'd be willing to consider modifying my views somewhat on the final status settlement negotiations. I have, strongly supported Israeli military actions to defend itself, in particular the war against Hezbullah in 2006.  I supported peace talks with the Palestinians when they made sense and opposed them when they did not.  I am HARDLY mindlessly anti-Israel!!!! But on settlements, I am mindlessly anti-settlement, and thus in the minds of some, anti-Israel. The settlements are, by all accounts hugely economically costly, soldiers in huge numbers don't want to be sent to defend them, they cause great diplomatic grief to the US, impede a final settlement, and generally PISS ME OFF.

In a way, I admire what the Israelis do on settlements. They manage to do something hugely: (i) not in their ECONOMIC interests (protecting those settlements is hugely expensive, not to mention building them), (ii) pretty damn clearly not in their SECURITY interests; and (iii) which America, Israel's only real ally in the world, opposes (but does nothing about).  After managing this trifecta, Israel then says, well, we did it, and we still love America.  Israel's got cojones on the settlement issue. Short on brains, painfully short on long term planning, but long on cojones. And that, at least, is worth admiring.

As for Bibi (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu), he's reasonably happy that the current Palestinian government has clamped down on the worst of the madness and sees Hamas as its blood enemy. And he'll probably be happy to dribble a few crumbs their way if they continue to "behave."  But after the second intifada and the huge rift with Hamas, there's just no appetite in Israel for renewed grand talks. Even I oppose them, for heaven's sake!

I called in the late 90s on Arafat to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state. I think the idea still holds merit.  Let Israel fight the existence of a newly declared state, born under fire, occupied by an enemy. The irony won't be lost on anyone in the region. It would put the US in a very bad spot, get the Arabs to verbally support it, and very possibly result in some positive (for the Ps) changes on the ground.  I don't really see the downside.  At worst, false hopes are raised and nothing changes, which is probably the most likely outcome.  But a Palestinian state will happen someday, barring some catastrophic disaster, the question is when and what the terms will be.  So starting sooner rather than later is no bad thing in my view, especially with a seemingly responsible coterie of P's in leadership positions in the West Bank.

So much of this could have been written 2 years ago, 5 years ago, or (with a few tense modifications and other tweaks) 15 years ago. We're frozen in time, because both sides are basically frozen in their positions.  Israel proves daily what some deny-- that they are obsessed with settlements for their own sake-- greed-- simple greed (albeit badly misplaced), and faux security concerns (also misplaced).  If the settlements weren't significant to the Israelis, they wouldn't keep building them!  They tend to force moderate P leaders into the arms of the Islamic extremeists, exactly as Begin and others planned, so long ago.  Sad, really.