Flying Pink Unicorns

Health Care Reform will likely pass

If I had to guess, the dems will pass it with 3 or 4 votes to spare. 

The fantastic CBO report, indicating that the health care reform bill will cut $138 billion off of the federal deficit in the next 10 years, and much more thereafter, probably sealed the fate of the bill in favor of passage.  This projection by the CBO gives much needed political cover to moderate democrats in districts that voted for McCain (or barely for Obama) that they can run as "smaller government" types while voting for this health care reform effort.

From what the dem leaders are saying this morning, and from yesterday's hugely positive developments, (the CBO projection) it now appears 80-20, at least, that the dems will pass the huge, comprehensive (and rather awful) health care reform package, probably on Sunday.  As my readers know, despite the bill's huge flaws, I consider this a monumental step forward in American history.  Once this bill is fixed up in the coming years (and it may take quite a few years), this achievement will be fully on par with the creation of social security and Medicare in its impact on America. 

There has been a TON of talk about the procedure involved in this latest leg of the health care reform battle.  What is likely going to happen is that the House will pass the Senate bill, unaltered.  This bill has some substantive problems, in addition to the smelly "bribes" needed to get votes 57-60 in order to pass a Republican filibuster.  These include the infamous Nebraska giveaway, the Louisiana Purchase, a special deal for Florida, and more.  Google these phrases for more info.  After the House passes the Senate bill it goes to Obama, who signs it.  It is then law.  Next, the House and Senate will pass identical fixes to the bill, which will proceed through "reconciliation" a procedure in the Senate which precludes the use of a filibuster.  The Democrats thus only need 50 votes (with Biden to break a tie, if needed) and not 60.  This is not a challenge-- it was always getting ALL 60 members of the Senate to vote for a health reform bill that was the problem.  50 is easy.  If that second bill, passed through reconciliation, gets a majority in both chambers IT goes to Obama for signature.  Thus this round of health care reform would (mercifully) end, probably next week.

For Larry, what do I think of deem and pass?  There has been talk, not yet silenced, that rather than the House simply vote on Health Care reform, they would vote on a rule for debate on the reconciliation package which would "deem" the Senate Health Care bill passed if the second reconciliation package passed.  This way the members could "avoid" voting directly for the Senate bill.  Its a sneaky act of political cowardice (the Senate bill itself is very unpopular in the House, and easy to vilify in campaign commercials.), and I don't much like it.  Typical democrat way of doing things-- terrified of their pathetic, idea-less GOP opposition, who ran the country damn near into the ground when they were in power.  A Trillion dollars blown in Iraq, Great Recession, torture, etc.  And Nancy and Harry are afraid of these IDIOTS! 

But do I, in the end, support Deem and Pass?  Yes.  If I was a yes vote in the House, and Nancy told me about this crazy procedure, I'd object.  Strongly.  But if she said, "look there are 5 wavering moderates that don't want to directly cast a vote for HC reform, but would rather use this crazy procedure," I'd be ok with it.  Health care reform is much too important to worry about process.  I will add that using this crazy procedure would almost certainly be a significant political NEGATIVE to those who go along with it.  Think many tens of millions won't be spent on ads saying, "Congresswoman X voted for Obama's health care reform bill and then lied about it?"  Of course they will.  And the ads will be more than a little truthful.

The democrats contend that deem and pass has been used before, and it has, but never for the purpose of avoiding a clear recorded vote on an issue of signficance, let alone an issue of monumental, epochal, country changing significance.   So I don't really like it at all.  But its constitutional, and if they do it, it will stick.

In any event, in the end, who cares?  Health care reform is BY FAR the biggest issue facing America.  I mean BY FAR!!  I actually don't think that can be seriously debated.  Given that, and given that this (seriously flawed) effort represents a very significant first step towards getting rid of the health insurance companies and towards a rational health care system, all other concerns must yield. 

DEAR US HOUSE:

PASS THE SENATE BILL, HOWEVER YOU WANT TO.  NOW. 

Flyingpinkunicorns