Friday, April 30, 2010

Larry Kudlow agrees with me
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/04/10/a_v-shaped_boom_is_coming_105131.html

This means I have to carefully consider if I'm just wrong.  Kudlow is a nearly mindless, knee jerk "conservative" who does hold some consistent and interesting views, but generally ignores any inconvenient history.  This is, I think, one of his better pieces, but then I would say that, since he agrees with me!

Still, read this carefully. It isn't his usual garbage, for a wide variety of reasons. In particular, his focus on corporate profits is one I STRONGLY agree with. The main reason for my hyper optimism beginning late last Summer was my expectation of a BOOM in business investment. That Boom has probably begun. The consumer is even coming back to life, as was shown in this morning's GDP report showing 3.2% annualized growth in consumer spending in the first quarter of 2010.

By the way, Kudlow references that the 4th Quarter of 1992 was better than 1993 and blames the tax hikes of 1993 (which were widely expected from about September of 1992 on. Well ok (this has some truth).  However, Kudlow conveniently leaves out the years of 1994-2000, when, after the Clinton tax hikes of 1993, the economy BOOMED!!  Hey Larry, do tax hikes only hurt in year one and then help in the out years?  To the extent one looked at the data from 1992-2000 and turned their brain off, that is what one would conclude.  In reality, the Clinton tax hikes of 1993 HELPED the economy because they convinced the bond market that we were getting our arms around the budget deficit, and thus interest rates dropped for much of the Clinton presidency, helping spur a great economic boom. 

In any event, someone not kindly disposed to Obama, at all, strongly agrees with my hyper economic optimism.  Take that for what its worth.

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