Barring a massive change in circumstances, Obama will win the election, and not in a cliffhanger.
Here are my thoughts on the debate. I think, analogizing it to a football game, that Obama won 18-6. No touchdowns. McCain kept turning the ball over, though he did move the ball some. Obama played it safe and kicked 6 field goals. He only got near the end zone once, but two holding penalties on the question dealing with whether Palin was qualified to be President (LAUGH), meant that possession was a field goal too. That's my opinion. Nothing at all huge, but Obama won.
Both of them looked great physically, especially Obama!
I'm stunned beyond belief by how little time was spent during the debate on the financial crisis, and even on the economy. The word "Ayers" was mentioned any number of times. The word "Paulson" or "Bernanke" was not to my recollection. This is hugely disappointing to me. Hugely. They spent just a ton of time on things many people don't care about much.
Here's my blow-by-blow of the debate-- not everything, but what I thought was worth commenting on.McCain lied through his teeth right out of the chute. He blamed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the subprime mess. That's completely insane! Fannie and Freddie were barely a part of the cause of the huge subprime mess. They didn't write subprime loans, or securitize them.
Middle class tax cut, Obama says. Just what the doctor ordered given a massive and growing deficit. The unwillingness of either candidate to even nod towards fiscal reality is disappointing. Not at all surprising, but disappointing.
McCain names a specific plumber and claims Obama is raising HIS taxes. Much much better than his prior efforts. McCain overdid this later in the debate, but it came out really well to me in the beginning.
Obama repeats that 95% of families get a tax cut under his plan, and no tax increase. The d's have learned the value of repetition.
McCain quotes Obama as saying "spread the wealth around." I really like this from McCain's perspective. A lot. Won't help him a jot, of course, but I did like it. Of course, honesty compels me to admit that I do support using the tax code to redistribute wealth to an extent. As I do with programs such as Medicaid, Medicare, and, to a lesser extent, social security.
Obama mentions McCain cuts taxes for Exxon Mobil. Repetitive and dull, but fairly effective.
Scheifer: "Aren't you both ignoring reality" (regarding the huge budget deficit and their expansive and expensive plans). YES, THEY ARE.
Obama-- investments in health care coverage will save $$ in the future-- same with energy. Voters CNN had watching the debate LOVED these lines. So did I. Obama did very very well on health care.
McCain calls for alternative energy, including Nuclear. "Energy independent." GIVE ME A BREAK.
McCain-- across the board spending freeze. Then scalpel cuts. Stop growing government. Men LOVED this line according the the running CNN monitor. And veto all pork. McCain answers this question noticeably better than Obama. Of course, freezing spending hurts real programs. Less money for courts. Less money for parks. For environmental protection. For school lunches. And much, much more.
McCain says he can balance the budget in 4 years. LAUGH.
McCain LIED THROUGH HIS TEETH when he said Obama voted to raise taxes on people making 42k. He voted for budget RESOLUTIONS, which don't raise taxes on anyone.
McCain touts his good ratings by taxpayers unions and the like. No one cares. Not even a little.
Obama said he voted for tort reform. No one cares.
Obama makes a minor mistake. He says he DISPUTES that he voted for tax hikes on people making 42k. Don't DISPUTE it. Savage it.
McCain whines about how Obama reneged on his near-promise to engage in a bunch of town hall meetings. Its a fair shot. But no one cares. Fighting about process is a losing battle.
McCain asks Obama to repudiate remarks of John Lewis. I'm so tired of the manufactured outrage in all these campaigns. Its so open and obvious. But the people are stupid.
McCain hits Obama for going back on his word (ooh) about not taking public financing. I find it hard to believe anyone cares.
Obama cites polls stating that more people think McCain is running a negative campaign. WHO CARES?
As of 9:30 we've spent a fair bit of time on the negativity of the campaign. That's a sad waste of time.
Obama mentions the Lewis statement-- says his campaign had nothing to do with it and that it disavowed it. Whoop-de-doo.
Obama points out that statements at McCain rallies are that Obama was a terrorist, and no one repudiates those audience statements.
McCain says people at his rallies are responsible. No mention that PALIN was the one who said "pal around with terrorists." Obama goofed by not mentioning that it was PALIN who said this, not some non-surrogate.
Anyway, WHO THE HELL CARES?
McCain mentions Ayers-- we need to know the full extent of your relationship with Ayers and Acorn. Mentions his campaign gave Acorn $800k.
Obama details his connection to Ayers and mentions all of the esteemed people who served on the boards with Ayers. This strikes me as a very good response, and will make McCain look truly silly.
McCain looks silly raising all of his attacks and then saying his campaign is about the economy, tax cuts, etc... Several times McCain's transitions were really awkward, as though he just had to slip in his stump speech.
Ooh, a Biden vs. Palin question.
OMG, Obama he mentions that Biden's from Scranton and never forgot where he came from. Playing the GOP game... Fight for the little guy. And then manages to NOT MENTION HOW UNQUALIFIED SARAH PALIN IS. I'm stunned that Obama instead says that the question whether she's qualified is "up to the voters." McCain attacked Biden a LOT harder than Obama attacked Palin. That's just insane. Hitting her HARD is very low hanging fruit.
McCain says Palin's a breath of fresh air and will sweep out the old boy's network. Yeah right.
McCain says Biden's qualified, but wrong about some national security issues. MUCH better answer.
McCain-- we can eliminate our dependence on middle eastern and Venezuelan oil in his first time. What a joke! Alternative energy will take a lot of time and energy. Then he says, "within 8-10 years."
Obama says, "in 10 years." He agrees with McCain.
Obama: we need to "expand domestic production." But then he says we have 3-4% of oil reserves and use 25% of oil and can't drill our way out of problem. Ok, good.
McCain says drill now and it will have impact now. He's mostly lying.
I can't believe how much time has been wasted in this debate-- talking about Ayers, free trade agreements, Peruvian free trade agreements. Very little time on the economy, bailout and energy. INSANE.
McCain mentions that Obama will sit down with Chavez. WHO THE HELL CARES. People watching the debate gave it a raspberry.
Health care-- false choice between increased coverage and decreasing costs comes up. Well partly false choice. How do laid off workers get coverage. Real people worry about being sick and thus going bankrupt.
10:00-- I think McCain is mildly hurting himself so far. His ad homonym attacks are missing the mark, and annoying people who want to hear answers. Obama's winning because McCain keeps turning the ball over in midfield. Obama has kicked several field goals and is winning small.
Obama's health care statements were LOVED by the voters watching. Absolutely LOVED!!!!!!!!!! WOW!!
The voters liked McCain's early part on health care too, but HATED his tax cut for health care. HATED EXTREME. WOMEN LOATHED IT.
McCain: Obama's object is a single payer system." From his lips to god's ears."
Obama -- I EXEMPT small businesses from any health care fine. Very good.
Obama shows much more animation talking about health care than other issues. He was REALLY on, on health care.
McCain-- average cost of health insurance is $5,800-- THAT'S GROUP PLANS JOHN. GROUP FUCKING PLANS. GROUP PLANS! There's no way that's even close to the cost of an average family plan.
McCain-- seems to say that government is the problem in the health care area. I don't think America believes that.
Obama won the health care segment solidly.
Roe v. Wade-- McCain says it should be left to the states. Then he mentions his role of the gang of 14 and Obama was not part of it. No one cares.
McCain-- anyone who supported Roe would not be qualified, but no litmus test. Nice contradiction.
McCain mentions Obama's vote in Illinois against protecting a would-be aborted fetus born alive. Hard hitting. Mentions his votes of "present." This is McCain's best answer of the debate.
Obama-- NOT TRUE. Bill said life saving treatment, but would have undermined Roe. Already a law on the books that required life saving treatment. Not only me but pro choice Rs and Ds voted against it and doctors did not support it.
I am STUNNED by the lack of attention to the financial crisis, absolutely positively stunned.
Obama's responses on Education were off the charts positively received by the voters watching. Off the charts.
