Flying Pink Unicorns

Today's the big day. Not to mention parade day for the Giants here in Manhattan. WHAT A GAME!

As for the democrats today, I'm going to confidently predict what's going to happen: I have no idea. Hillary will win New York, big, but don't be fooled, New York is not representative of the national democratic party at the moment, and its not only because its Hillary's adopted home state.

The real surprise today on the democratic side would be if there's a very clear winner. Obama has virtually erased Hillary's national polling lead, which she's held nonstop since this process began. Like Hillary he has enormously passionate committed supporters. I handed out literature for the Clinton campaign last night and this morning, and more than a few people smirked at me, or even said, "Obama."

If we dems have a foodfight for another month or even two, that won't hurt us any-- lots of pubicity. But if it goes on into the Summer (unlikely, but not impossible), that could spell disaster in the Fall.

Finally, I want to address what I am calling McCain Panic. A few democrats I know are in mortal terror of McCain and think we can't possibly win in November, especially if Hill is the nominee. I have told them to calm down. If there were a snap election held next week Hill would clean his clock, because she's not a Republican. The country is fed up with the Bushies. Bush has well less than 10% support among democrats, and (I'm guessing) less than 20% among independents. Yes, some of these people would support McCain now, and some will in November. But as of this instant the country wants to elect a democrat by more than 10 points. This will of course close big time by November; I assess the chances of a democrat landslide as very low (last one LBJ 64, last one before that, sort of, 1944 (which was only 53/46, but was an electoral college landslide). But the idea that the dems can't beat McCain is silly. Yes, he's their best candidate by far. Yes he'll attract independents and some democrats. But here's a simple fact: Obama had a rally in Idaho yesterday. Idaho has almost no democrats. He attracted 15,000 people. That's more than voted in the Idaho democratic primaries in 2004. Clinton is also generating wild enthusiasm. If they are both on a ticket together, as I expect, they could generate enough enthusiasm and new voters to simply overwhelm McCain's ability to attract swing voters. I'm not predicting any of this, I don't begin to begin to know what will happen. But McCain Panic is not justified, at least not yet.