I'm not quite as certain as I was when I wrote on January 15th that McCain would be the GOP nominee, but close. The lead paragraph in an article in the most recent edition of the economist perfectly sums up why I think Obama will win the nomination:
ON SATURDAY February 9th an overflowing crowd of Virginians got a chance to see
the Democratic presidential candidates giving dueling speeches at the
Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Richmond. More interesting than anything the
candidates said, however, was the detritus afterwards. The crowds stripped the
place clean of Obama signs, tearing every last one off the walls. Hillary signs were abandoned on chairs and trampled under foot.
That pretty much tells you all you need to know about democratic enthusiasm for Obama. He is a phenomenon. Hillary is a candidate, an appealing one to some. I supported Gore for president, with Hillary my strong second choice. See my post on my support for Hillary analogizing to the prom. http://flyingpinkunicorns.blogspot.com/search?q=prom. I always recognized that she left a lot to be desired as a candidate. And that her signs were left to be stomped on while Obama's were treated like $100 bills to be fought over tells you all you really need to know about the relative enthusiasm each generates among democrats. I can't tell you precisely how Obama will get the nomination. My best guess is that he wins Wisconsin today, solidly (5-10 points, maybe more), wins Ohio, is competitive in Texas and wins Pennsylvania. Under that scenario, there is every chance Hillary will actually drop out long before the convention, although "quitter," isn't a word that even her harshest enemies would toss her way. Many of the superdelegates supporting Hillary are apparently dying to jump ship and ride the winner's wave in Obama. But they don't want to piss of the Clintons, just in case. But as soon as they can, a goodly number of Clinton's delegates will move over to Obama. At some point the dam will burst, and a flood of them will move over to Obama. That's the most likely scenario. He's up in the national polls (for the first time) he has MUCH more money, he has MUCH more enthusiasm, and he's won a whole bunch of primaries and caucuses in a row, by a wide margin. He has more popular votes and more pledged delegates. It was a close competitive race, but Obama will prevail.
