Flying Pink Unicorns

Well, my (modest) pubic is clamoring for predictions. I've been busy, and derelict, but here they are (even though voting has started).

Turnout in New Hampshire will be absolutely astronomical. I don't know enough about the state to predict raw numbers, but whatever the record is for turnout in a contested primary, it will be SHATTERED, absolutely demolished.

The media-fed surge towards Obama is very real. He wins big today, by at least 10 points, maybe more. Hillary isn't quite FINISHED (sorry Uncle), but if I am correct about that big a win, Obama becomes the clear front runner. But the main reason candidates usually have to drop out after losing in Iowa and New Hampshire, a lack of money, doesn't apply to Hillary. She has plenty of money to carry on and plenty of will. So she will. Only if she's clearly beaten after super duper Tuesday (February 5th) would she drop out.

So I say Obama by 10 over Clinton and Clinton by only 4 over Edwards. In fact, a 3rd place finish by Hillary is more likely than a first!

A digression. Historically, candidates are pretty much forced to drop out after poor showings in Iowa/New Hampshire (as Biden and Dodd did after Iowa) because they run out of MONEY. Clinton will not have this problem, as she already has a good deal of money, and can easily raise more, virtually regardless of how she's doing in the primary season. Money is the main reason why the early states are so very important; the votes there give donors an idea of who might win. Why give money to the guy who finished 5th in New Hampshire?

Rooooody, on the GOP side, is trying to defy this whole logic, and focus on what in the end makes a nominee a nominee; delegates. He has a fair bit of money, so his plan was not to kill himself in the early states (odd, as I think he could have competed in New Hampshire, but he feared McCain's genuine popularity there), and save his money and spend his time in the delegate rich larger states who moved their primaries up to February this year, like California and Florida, where he is fairly well known and he thinks he can do very well.

My New Hampshire GOP predictions:

On the GOP side, McCain will win, but not hugely. Let's say McCain by 7 over Romney. His margin would have been bigger, but for the Obama surge. In New Hampshire there are a TON of independent voters. Indys in New Hampshire can vote in whichever primary they choose. New Hampshire has trended democratic in recent years (Kerry carried it, as opposed to 2000, when it went for Bush), and in 2006 the GOP in New Hampshire was wiped out in state elections and in the governor's race. GOP Senator John Sununu will likely lose his reelection bid if he runs. Which is a long way of saying that independents, who provided McCain with his victory in 2000 over Bush, will also give him a ton of votes this time around, but will give a whole lot more to Obama.

As for the GOP nomination, for the first time in this whole campaign, I think I know who the GOP nominee will be. Incredibly, I am pretty sure it will be McCain! My friend Andrew and I considered him as roadkill a long time ago, before the media did. But Romney I never thought had a serious chance, Huckabee is widely seen as not ready for prime time (he isn't), Thompson fell flat on his face, Ron Paul isn't viable. That leaves McCain and Rooooooooody as the last men standing. And McCain has I think more respect in GOP circles than Rooooody. He's a known quantity. If he translates his upcoming win in New Hampshire into fundraising (always a problem for him, not least because he hates fundraising), he's I think the reasonably clear favorite to win the nomination. Rooooooody is still alive and kicking. Romney will go away. Huckabee won't win, and its too late I think for a Thompson surge; the press' characterization of him as not REALLY wanting the job of president seems completely correct to me. So we will likely end the GOP race where it started-- with McCain as a front runner. Quite a turnaround.

Of course, my political prognostication record is famously lousy, so maybe none of this will happen...