Flying Pink Unicorns

McCain will pick Romney as his Vice.

I have come to think that McCain will pick Romney as his Vice. McCain doesn't respect him at all because Romney totally flip flopped on virtually every social issue (and other issues) in the GOP primary. (For McCain to dislike someone on the grounds that he's a hypocrite is rich, but never mind). And McCain is one of those people, very much like Bush in this regard, where a personal connection is absolutely critical. Still, it is becoming clearer by the hour that the economy will be THE issue in this campaign. McCain had hoped to make it a war-time Commander-in-Chief election, where he is perceived to hold a significant edge on Obama, but as of this writing, and subject to change (Iran?) that is not to be. Iraq is much less violent and, more importantly, Americans have lost interest. Worse (for McCain's campaign), Prime Minister Al Maliki came out explicitly in favor of OBAMA'S withdrawal plan. Now he walked it back, but still. And worse still (for McCain's campaign), even the BUSH WHITE HOUSE is now talking about "time horizons." The difference between a "time horizon" and a flexible but strong goal of a timetable is angels dancing on the head of a pin territory.

So everyone but McCain is moving towards Obama's position (as refined, smoothed, and changed a bit) which, unsurprisingly, is the median voters' position.

On Afghanistan there is much more agreement than disagreement. On Iran, I find it hard to believe McCain's going to run on the "let's do another big middle east war platform." If he does, Obama will win in a landslide. All of this is a very long way of saying that (as of now, and subject to change based on a big crisis) this is a repeat of the 1992 "Its the economy stupid" election. And the best GOP VP candidate for that kind of an election, BY FAR, is Romney. He created and ran a wildly successful business, ran a successful Olympics, and was a governor. He's incredibly smart, thoughtful and serious (unlike the clown he ran as in the GOP primary-- its a sad indictment of GOP primary voters that one simply has to say idiotic things on a hugely regular basis to have any chance).

McCain and his people are thinking, "if this is an economy election, we're toast! Only chance is to get Romney, hope he carries Michigan (not at all impossible in a close election), helps in the Midwest some, and helps elsewhere because he so obviously helps McCain with his big weaknesses in matters economic."

From McCain's perspective, I think this is a wise move. I still think he's toast (my 8 point victory prediction for Obama looks conservative; absent a big racist backlash he'll beat that, even WITH a big racist backlash he'll still win, this is THAT bad of a year for the GOP), but hey, you may as well go down with your best. And for McCain right now, Romney is his best choice on the economy, and by a whole lot.