Flying Pink Unicorns

How many votes will Obama and McCain actually get?

I don't mean what percentage of the vote, I mean actual vote totals. I predict Obama will win the popular vote by 9 points, and receive 75.9 million votes, and McCain about 63.3 million. By way of contrast, Bush received 62.04 million votes in 2004, and Kerry received 59.03 million. Here's how I get to this astonishing prediction.


According to someone interviewed by CNN, 213 million people are eligible to vote this year (note, not REGISTERED, eligible to vote).

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/21/early.voting/index.html

I have no reason to disbelieve that number, so I'll go with it.

Turnout was 60% in the 2004 election.

If turnout was the same this year, that would imply that a total of 127.8 million people will vote this time around. This is most unlikely. Turnout will be quite a bit higher. According to the above-linked article the high turnout election of 1960 (Kennedy squeaks by Nixon) had 64% turnout. The CNN article speculated we could beat that number. It wouldn't surprise me if we did. In fact, I predict that we will have a 66 percent turnout, tying the highest mark in American history, which occurred in the 1908 election!

66% of the above-referenced 213 million people yields an expected vote total of 140.6 million!

I have previously predicted an 8-point win by Obama. I now believe that my projected margin of 8 points was too conservative. I am now predicting a 9-point Obama win. Assuming that 3rd party candidates receive 1% of the total vote (its too large a number, but not by a ton and it simplifies things), Obama would win 54-45. 54% of 140.6 million is 75.9 million votes!! (Again, Bush received 62 million and change votes in 2004). I thus predict that Obama will receive 75.9 million or so votes, and McCain will receive approximately 63.3 million.

Obama receiving less than 70 million votes would surprise me considerably, whereas his receiving 80 million votes would surprise me but not shock me.

If this prediction of a high turnout election bears out, Obama will in fact win the 375 electoral votes I predicted recently, and may well win by more than my predicted 9 points. I have drank the Kool-Aid, big-time. Feel free to laugh and criticize if I'm seriously wrong.

I will write up after the election and see how all of my various predictions turned out.