Flying Pink Unicorns

2009 Legislative Predictions:

18 days till inauguration. Get excited. Get really excited!

Some predictions on the legislative front with a sprinkling of foreign policy thrown in.

Congress and Obama have an unbelievably full in-box as Obama awaits inauguration on January 20th. Doesn't it seem like he's already president? Hasn't the nightmare ended yet?

1) A massive stimulus package will be enacted before the end of February. This prediction isn't really tough. Its been all over the news. I predict that the total amount of all stimulus packages (there may be more than one) will be less than $800 billion. While that is a staggeringly large number, I will likely be a little disappointed in the final number, as I would prefer an even bigger number, both to ensure that the recession isn't needlessly deep, and because I think a large percentage of the money is likely to be reasonably well spent. Go ahead, laugh. That's a reasonable response to the bit about well spent. But a lot of it will.

2) Health care reform. The big enchilada. I don't know when health care reform will pass, but I predict it will. It will be some form of messy compromise, designed to peel of 10 Republican votes in the Senate and 30 in the House. It will allow anyone who wants to to buy into either Medicare (my choice) the Federal Employees' health plan (better than nothing) or perhaps both. It will reform the way insurance companies work. It will forbid discrimination based on pre-existing conditions. It will not, however, require insurance companies to insure patients. And it most certainly will not be a radical reform, like single payer, unfortunately. It will be a messy compromise.

3) Immigration: I predict that no significant action will be taken on immigration in 2009. Perhaps 2010.

4) Energy: I predict that the amount of new spending on alternative fuels and regulations on emissions will be surprisingly high. Cap and Trade, Carbon swaps, fuel cells, batteries, solar panels. You will be hearing a lot about these in 2009. I don't know enough to make a truly detailed prediction, but as between more energy reform and less, I predict more. The shock of $4 a gallon gasoline was profound, and will be useful to Obama when he tries to sell serious energy reform.

5) Iraq: Iraq will worsen slightly, at times, but not enough to throw the planned slow motion withdrawal off track. We will in fact begin withdrawing meaningful numbers later in 2009.

6) Afghanistan: We will, as has been stated, add more troops into Afghanistan.

7) Trade: The sounds of silence. New trade deals are off the table in 2009. Obama needs all the help he can get for his legislative agenda, and pissing off organized labor will have to wait until 2010, or beyond.