Flying Pink Unicorns

I am predicting a bit more of a GOP blowout than some of the professionals, but my thoughts aren't out of the mainstream.

First, I note that if you want the best site for these sorts of election predictions, go on over to

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Nate Silver is, imo, the very best of the political talking heads, bringing cool rational analysis to the discussion.

But you're reading my blog, so here are my predictions:

I expect the GOP to pick up 60-65 house seats (!!!!!) and 8 Senate seats.

Here are the Senate seats the GOP will pick up:

Three are essentially certain: Indiana (was Evan Bayh), North Dakota (was Byron Dorgan) (Arkansas) (is Blanche Lincoln, she's toast).

Three are much more likely than not to go GOP

Wisconsin (currently Russ Feingold, well down in the polls), Pennsylvania (currently turncoat Arlen Spector, who lost his democratic primary-- Sestack is slightly down), Colorado (appointed Michael Bennett is down a little)

Two more states are VERY close, but I expect the GOP to take them both, making for an 8-seat pickup: Nevada (Harry Reid), Illinois: (Obama's old seat!).  I note that in Nevada, Sharon Angle is such a weak candidate that None of the Above, which is really on the ballot in Nevada, may well pick up 3-5% of the vote and allow Reid to squeak back in.
California (Barabara Boxer v. Carly Fiorina), Connecticut (Richard I served in Vietnam Bloomenthal), Washington and West Virginia (where Obama is at about 30%!) I expect to stay Blue.  In a truly historic GOP night, at least two of these would flip, but I don't see that.  I note that the Washington state polls are basically tied, but I expect Patti Murray, the democrat, to win by at least 3 or 4 points.  For a variety of wholly unimportant reasons, Washington State is very difficult to poll and the polls are typically skewed a few points in favor of the Republicans.

Finally, the GOP, as political followers know, gave up a nearly certain pickup in Delaware (which went for Obama by > 20 when it nominated Christine, I am not a witch, I'm you, O'Donnell rather than the eminently electable Mike Castle.  Thanks guys!