Flying Pink Unicorns

Obama is about to become more popular. Then less

Since I've been throwing around predictions as freely as Joe Lieberman has been throwing around positions on health care legislation, here's one more. Obama's popularity ratings in recent polls has been around 48-49%. I predict he gets about a 5 point bump if health care reform passes both houses and he signs it into law. This will last about 15 minutes, then Obama's popularity will resume its downward slide, into the mid 40s, or perhaps even the low 40s. From there I'm not sure yet. I have him in the low to mid 40s in say mid-February, the next move in his popularity will depend on: (1) the strength of my predicted Obama Boom; and (2) how much credit Obama gets for the coming recovery in the job market. I'm not sure about how much credit he'll get for that, I'll have to think about it.