Flying Pink Unicorns

Panic, despair, health care

These words now go together.

The effort to reform health care is in real trouble. Here's one recent article among many.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/08/AR2009070804184.html?hpid%3Dtopnews&sub=AR

The dems are badly floundering because of intra-party disagreement (not surprising) coupled with the entirely expected nearly uniform GOP opposition. Anyone who thought the GOP would participate in actually trying to solve a crucial national problem must have spent the last 8 years on Neptune. Well, prescription drugs for seniors. Anyway, we KNEW the GOP wouldn't work with President Obama on health care. After all, can't give the democrat a victory! Although there is a lot of talking by Chuck Grassley, the ranking Republican on the crucial Senate Finance Committee, he has few GOP followers. As Jon Kyl, the # 2 Republican in the Senate recently said, Grassley has no authority to represent Republicans.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-baucus-grassley9-2009jul09,0,5713295.story?page=2

So the democrats have put in a HUGE effort to be bipartisan in the Senate, only to be predictably disappointed. Sure, the dems may pick off 3 or 4 Republican Senators, at most, but that's it. And more likely they'll get only 1 or 2. And that's worth fundamentally watering down health care reform?

In any event, the Obama administration realizes that their signature issue, health care, is in big trouble. To its credit, the administration has awakened, big time. The early strategy was to give congress their head, let them work out the trade-offs with minimal supervision/input, and weigh in where necessary. After all, the Congressional committee chair people are really feeling their power these days because of the huge democratic majorities, and a top-down approach from the White House might really have not worked any better than it did for Hillary in 1994. Alas, that particular plan has run into the iceberg of democratic disunity, and, like the Titanic, the leave-it-to-Congress ship is taking on water fast. Oops.

The administration has now realized that the democrats in Congress can't agree amongst themselves and, as Andrew put it, are like petulant children, requiring careful adult supervision. Well fortunately, adults, from Obama to Emanuel and on down, run the White House. The adults are now in the game, and are pushing, pulling, arm twisting, begging, threatening, cajoling, convincing, negotiating and other adjectives I can't think of at the moment, with congress, mainly the Senate. All is negotiable, but the noises coming out of the White House recently have been hugely encouraging; more willingness to negotiate over how to pay for it (I couldn't possibly care any less), while less negotiation on a public option (I couldn't possibly care any more). All to the good, as far as it goes.

The (really) bad news is that with the clock ticking towards Obama's (meaningless) August deadline, the Senate isn't close to agreeing on the big issues. The Senate HELP Committee (Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, Kennedy, Chairman), put out a reform bill tentatively scored at $600 Billion over 10 years. Chump change, in other words, given that we will spend more than $40 Trillion over that stretch. If Kennedy put it out, I'm for it (on Health Care). If we can't pass this reasonable bill, the sky has fallen. Obama will be shown to be totally impotent. Like the Emperor in the Wizard of Oz.

To be defeated by Max Baucus and the other compromisers when you hold 60 seats (57 or so is the real number-- there are a few dems that really aren't, but Snowe and one or two Repubs are listening) is just sad.

Based on what I know now, and I have been following of late, I'd say that its no better than 50-50 that a serious reform bill is signed into law. The House will do what its told, and Nancy will pass a strong bill with a PUBLIC OPTION (insert steroids here), but the Senate???? And even if the Senate does pass a real bill, that conference committee will be one whale of a monster-fight. Will Nancy and Steny Hoyer in the House just cave to the Senate, after being told we can't get to 50 in the Senate without doing it the Senate's way? I predict yes, they will. If they didn't, the thing could die. I don't think red state dems like Nelson of Nebraska, the two dems from Arkansas (Pryor and Blanche Lincoln), Landrieu of Louisiana, etc. are afraid of bucking Obama. They think it will HELP them politically in their states, and they're almost certainly correct. Since they're not running for president, what do they care if health care reform whithers on the vine?

I advocate the democrats in the Senate writing a reasonable bill, compromising within the party, ignoring the GOP, and going from there. I truly hate to try and do such a massive reform effort in a partisan fashion, its far from optimal. But alas the GOP just isn't willing to deal on any terms except their own, and they're not willing to really try and dig in and help solve America's huge problems. So we'll have to do it without them, and let the chips fall where they may.

I urge everyone to contact their house member and Senators on this. www.house.gov, and www.senate.gov. Finding links to send your rep/Senator a message on-line is a piece of cake on the main web sites. This issue is so huge that its worth the few minutes to send your comment.