Flying Pink Unicorns

I endorse Likud in the Israeli elections which will occur in February 2009.

I have to start by saying that as of now I am against any serious long-term negotiations with the Palestinians over the borders of a Palestinian state or any other long term issue. I take this position because the Palestinians are so badly split, between Hamas, which does not recognize Israel at all, runs Gaza, and has quite a bit of support, and Fatah (once Arafat's movement) which is "led" by Abbas, "runs" the West Bank, and has almost no real support among the Palestinian people as I understand it.

I never ever thought I'd live to endorse Likud in an election. They have always stood, and still stand for everything I hate about Israeli foreign policy. Likud was founded by a merger of several Israeli right wing parties, and was effectively run by Menachem Begin who for me is the most hated figure in Israeli political history. Begin was the mastermind of Israel's crazy settlement policies, by which Israeli citizens were dropped, hither and fro, into lands captured by Israel in the 1967 war. Begin conceived these policies in order to ensure that Israel could never give the West Bank back to the Palestinians (or anyone else). That was the stated position behind the creation of the settlements, at the time. That so many American Jews mindlessly repeat, "the settlements are necessary for security" is simply not thinking things through. Begin did, and that's where his views led first Likud, and later Israel, though he had tons of help in growing the numbers of settlers.

I have hated the Israeli settlement policies since I was 13. So how on earth can I endorse my hated political enemy? Well, Israeli politics is a mess.

The ruling Kadima party of Olmert (a party originally led by Ariel Sharon, which broke away from the right-wing Likud party) has, imho, done a terrible job for Israel's security. I just can't forgive these bozos for the 2006 Lebanon war fiasco. You'll recall that: (a) Israel essentially declared war on Hezbullah in Lebanon; (b) announced a series of (perfectly reasonable and appropriate) goals for the war; and (c) declared peace with literally none of these goals accomplished.

Olmert, the Prime Minister throughout this fiasco, clung to his job like grim death. He has been investigated for corruption for quite a while, and in September Israeli police recommended that criminal charges be brought against him.

He did not run for the leadership of the Kadima party, and that position was won by Tzipi Livni, Israel's hapless Foreign Minister. Livni reminds me a lot of Condi Rice. Theoretically capable, but mindlessly followed brainless leaders through brain-dead foreign policies for years and years. At least Condi had the good sense not to run for President to continue these brain dead policies. I wouldn't vote for Condi for dog catcher, and I think more of her than I do of Livni. Livni is a sad, sad woman who views Israel not as it is, or rather not as one might see it, but as she wishes it were. Not unlike Condi and Iraq, or Israel-Palestine, or many other foreign policy matters. Livni, from what I know of her, has no business running a community bank, let alone a country. She has repeatedly defended the Lebanon war fiasco, and has advocated final status talks with the Palestinians, which makes no sense given that Hamas, which denies Israel's right to exist, controls the West Bank. Either of these policy positions are so bad, so stupid, so counter to Israel's vital national security interests, that they disqualify her from serious office. But holding both of these positions is heroically incompetent and idiotic. She must go.

As if one needed another reason to despise Kadima, there is always that controversial prisoner trade made earlier this year. I ripped Olmert & Co. a new one in my post of July 16, 2008. I have nothing to add to that post, so I refer you to it for details on the awful exchange of a live murderer and other goodies for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers killed in Hezzbullah captivity.

So supporting Kadima is out, if I can find an even vaguely reasonable alternative (no Andrew, the "tooth fairy" won't do). I note that I supported Sharon for Prime Minister when he ran, so despondent and disgusted was I by the behavior of the Palestinians, and so little was I interested in a resumption of peace talks just then. I was reasonably happy with Sharon's leadership (more words I never dreamt I'd think, let alone write), and was comfortable with supporting his protoge, Olmert. Well, I was ignorant. I'm knowledgeable about American national politics. Israeli not so much, except in very broad outline.

Anyway, Olmert took Israel out for a spin, and in my view he dinged up the car really good. I suppose he didn't wreck it, but he ran it into a tree, blew out 2 or 3 tires, did thousands of dollars of damage in body work, destroyed the clutch, and never bothered to change the oil, damaging the engine mildly. So I'm not giving the car back to him! Livni was his passenger, and is convincingly promising to drive and care for the car in precisely the same way he did, negotiating with the Palestinians when Hamas runs Gaza and Abbas has very very little power and no influence. So I am certainly not lending her the car! I wouldn't give her a picture of the car.

Normally I would look to Labor. Labor is the mainstream party of the Israeli left, and a natural home for people like me who want to make a final peace deal with the Palestinians and Israel's other neighbors, and is willing to give up land/settlements to do it.

And I would consider Labor if I heard sensible things from Ehud Barak, its leader. Barak, you'll recall, was Labor's leader when the talks which got hot and heavy between Clinton and Yassar Arafat were ongoing. He pulled Israeli troops out of southern Lebanon, a move which I strongly supported. Alas, Barak promised that Olmert's troubles would not derail talks with the Palestinians. Talks which he wants a second chance as Prime Minister to see through. Well, that's fine Ehud, really, but who are you going to talk to? Abbas? He has about as much sway over the Palestinian people as the Bum who slept at 57th street and Lexington avenue last night. He couldn't make a deal stick among Fatah supporters! Let alone his blood enemy, Hamas. If the talks don't include Hamas, I don't support them. And since Hamas doesn't recognize Israel, that becomes rather difficult. I would much rather Israel talk to Hamas now, without preconditions, than engage in serious, endgame negotiations with Fatah. Better to talk to people who you know hate your very existance but could possibly make a deal stick if they struck one than to people who have resigned themselves to your existance, but could not make a deal stick. (I think Israel should adopt my plans for a final proposal and simply unilaterally implement them, but that's for another post another day).

In addition, the Israeli left has apparently splintered into various sub-parties. I have not troubled myself to learn about this.

So I look to Likud. Its head, Netanyahu, (Bibi) is a too-slick used car salesman type. He's obviously competent, however, which is more than I can say for Livni. And he's against negotiations with the Palestinians at this time, which is more than I can say for Barak and Labor.

So unless and until I hear reasonable things from Barak, I am, very reluctantly, with nose pinched firmly shut, supporting Likud in the upcoming Israeli elections.

Choices like these make a choice between McCain and Obama seem like a wellspring of fantastic options.