Flying Pink Unicorns

Where does the election stand as of Sunday November 2?

Many news reports, and not just on Fox, are, THE RACE IS TIGHTENING, THE RACE IS TIGHTENING!! MCCAIN IS SURGING! Both campaigns have it in their interest to have that as the storyline. Obama is terrified of complacency, and McCain of defeatism. So both sides are happy with that storyline. If one actually looks at the polls, however, although there is a tiny bit of tightening at the national polls, real tightening in one big state, Pennsylvania, and a little tightening in some of the red states leaning towards Obama, the race itself has not tightened materially, and Obama is still a gigantic favorite to win.

Regarding the national polls, working from the most recent polls backwards, the national polls all favor Obama. By: 5, 10, 5, 7, 13 (questionable methodology), 9, 5, 4, 7, 3 (godawful methodology, Fox really blew this poll). This averages out to an Obama 6.8 point lead. With one bad poll in each direction, its a fair average. There are still undecideds in these polls, and they seem highly likely to me to break somewhat for McCain. The average is about 51-44. If the 5 point undecideds break 3-2 McCain (which sounds right to me), that would leave Obama as the 53-47 6-point leader.

Thus, if the national polls are to be believed, my 9-point margin of victory for Obama is unlikely. Not completely out the window, but unlikely. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on that one yet, but it does look like a long shot. Besides, I can't make 5 different sets of predictions and then claim credit for the one that just happens to come true.

As for the Swing states, the McCain campaign has put an absolutely huge effort into Pennsylvania over the last week, and it has definitely tightened. (I note that there is no early voting in Pennsylvania, so McCain has every chance for the tighter race to be reflected in the final vote tally).


Various Pennsylvania politicians, prominently including democratic Governor Ed Rendell, have been screaming for weeks that the polls showing Obama up double digits were not realistic and the race was much closer than that. Well, now the pollsters agree. Again working backwards, the most recent polls in Pennsylvania (21 evs) have Obama up 6, 4, 8, 5, 4, 7, 14 and 9. This is noticeably tighter than the double digits that prevailed 2 weeks ago, but still don't leave McCain with much chance of painting the state red. Given the amount of polling in Pa, even if there is a race effect, it would be a stunning upset for McCain consistently down mid-high single digits to pull out Pa.


In 27 ev Florida, where early voting is well underway and long lines have been reported for early voting, Obama has been up 4, 2, 7, 4, 4 and 4 points in the recent polls. A consistent, but very narrow lead. Whatever the real state of the race was has been partially locked in by the enormous early voting numbers. In any event, Florida has if anything widened very slightly in Obama's favor, although that could easily be statistical noise. Florida is (a) very close; and (b) static in the polls.


In 20 ev Ohio, Obama is up 5.5 points on average, and the polls have been very static despite a frenzy of campaigning by McCain, Palin, and various GOP surrogates. No tightening here.


In critical 13 ev Virginia, Obama is up an average of 6. Virginia polls appear to have tightened a point or two in the last week, but is still favoring Obama. McCain hasn't led a single Va poll since October 1. Since then Obama has led 22 polls in a row. Its close enough that there is some chance it could swing to McCain, but it doesn't appear likely.


In 15 ev North Carolina, still hotly contested despite being quite red in recent years (Clinton didn't win it either time), the race is very tight, within 2 points. It has been for several weeks. No tightening at all.


In 11 ev Missouri, the polls have definitely moved in McCain's favor, as traditional GOP voters come home. In the parts of the state where the state name is pronounced Missour-ah, McCain has surged. In the parts of the state where the name may be pronounced Missour-ee, Obama is still extremely strong. Missouri does not have early voting, so this may be a state that has swung from blue to red in the last week. It was always a state that Obama would only win in a landslide.


In 9 ev Colorado, Obama is up an average of 6 points, as he has been for weeks. This 6-point margin is probably baked in the cake due to the breathtaking, record-setting early voting numbers. McCain hasn't visited Colorado (or Nevada or New Mexico) in ages, and the GOP cut their ad buy there. There has not been any tightening here, and the race appears over.


Meanwhile, in McCain's 10 ev home state of Arizona, the two most recent polls have McCain up only 1 and 4 points, respectively. Similarly, in 15 ev Georgia, McCain was up only 3 and 5 points in recent polls. Now Obama will not win either of these absent a landslide, but if the polls are basically correct, Obama has nearly the same chance of winning Arizona or Georgia as McCain has of winning Pennsylvania. Or Virginia or Colorado. All of these states are about as far from tied as the other, give or take.


Which is a fancy way of saying that even if the race has tightened a little, and it may have, it has not tightened in any way in which you could say that McCain's chances of actually winning are anything other than a huge long shot.