Flying Pink Unicorns

An update on the swing state, also sometimes called purple states, as purple is a mix of red and blue.

I refer you back to my post of June 14th, where, in a novel sized post, I discussed, among other things, the various swing states (states that easily could go for either McCain or Obama). I'm going to update that post now.

Here, in order of their electoral votes, are the states that I consider swing states. I'll comment on how likely I think they are to go one way or the other.

First, a list of some excellent resources.

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html

http://www.slate.com/id/2200602/ (slate does a series on swing states)

Now onto my job.

As you recall, the 2004 election was won by Bush by a 51-48, or 3 point margin. When I say a state is red + 2, that it means it voted for Bush by 5 points, in other words, 2 points more Republican than the nation as a whole.

I will list each state and then after it will have in parenthesis the number of electoral votes and how it voted in 2004 (ex, New York, 31 evs, blue + 18).

At this instant, Obama is up about 2.3 points. Call it 2 points for simplicity.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

So if a state is polling at a 4 point Obama lead, that means it is currently polling Blue + 2. As you know, past performance, or current polling, is no guarantee of future results.

Off we go:

1) Florida: (Red + 2.5, 27 GIGANTIC electoral votes). I predicted in June that it would be red + 5. It is now polling favoring McCain by 2, or Red + 4.5.

As of this instant, my prediction in June was a bulls-eye for Florida. I get few brilliance points. It is a very tough get for Obama if the election is very close, for a variety of reasons. He and Biden are spending serious time and money there, and the campaign can certainly move the needle a point or two (above and beyond any national movement). So Florida is certainly within reach. If Obama is up in the polls by less than 3 points nationally on the eve of election day, he'll very likely lose Florida. To win Florida he almost certainly has to win the popular vote, as Gore did. Probably has to win it by several points. I just don't think Obama can win Florida in a close election. Didn't in June, don't know.

Revised Prediction-- Within 2 points either way, but more likely McCain gets these 27 evs. If Obama does win in the Sunshine state, its all over, sing him hail to the Chief.

2) Pennsylvania (21 evs, Blue +5). I predicted in June that Pennsylvania would be blue + 9! This looks like a big fat MISS!!!! Right now Obama is up 2.5 in the PA polls, so it polls Blue + 0. 9 points is what we call in this business a real bad effort.!

I am more than a little puzzled why Pennsylvania should be so incredibly close at the moment.
I note that McCain hasn't been up in a Pennsylvania poll since April, which doesn't count. Then, Obama has no double digit leads in recent weeks.

I would be extremely surprised if Pennsylvania doesn't revert to its usual bluer tint. Maybe race is playing a big factor here. Or maybe Obama's new voters are being under sampled. The prototypical McCain voter, Married, settled, older, is always well polled. Maybe Obama's younger newly registered voter is under polled. I'm just guessing. I'm perplexed.

Still, blue + 0 is good enough if Obama wins the popular vote, and Pa being red + anything meaningful is just highly unlikely. Still looks good for Obama, but not nearly not NEARLY as safe as I thought in June, even allowing for the drop from a predicted 8 point Obama win to a current 2 point Obama lead.

Revised Prediction: Obama carries it, and by more than 5 points at that.


3) Ohio (20 evs, blue <1). I predicted in June that Ohio would be red + 4. It is now polling favoring McCain by 1.6, or red + 4.1. ANOTHER BULLS EYE.

This one I suppose I could take some props for. I always thought Ohio would be much easier for Obama than would Florida. I still do. I note that the polls are only .4 points apart, nothing. So the polls would not lead you to my conclusion.

When I was predicting an 8-point Obama national win, predicting Ohio in his column was pretty easy. Now that the polls have him up by only 2, its MUCH MUCH closer. When I close my eyes I still see Obama winning Ohio, in part because I see him winning by 4 or 5 points nationally. But take nothing for granted. If Obama only wins by < 2, Ohio will be very close, but will probably go red.

Needless to say, the campaign is fast and furious in Ohio. Whatever they say publicly, the McCain people know they probably can't win without Ohio, and will pull out all the stops. Ok, enough about Ohio.

4) Michigan (17 evs, Blue + 5). I predicted in June that Michigan would be blue + 6. It is now polling for Obama by 5, or only blue + 3. Another Midwestern MISS. At the moment anyway.

The McCain folks have made and will surely continue to make a HUGE push for Michigan. Other than New Hampshire and its 4 evs, they see Michigan as the best of the Kerry states to try and flip to red. And it probably is. Michigan has been a real recession for years, due to the slow motion demise of the auto industry, and a bit due to lousy democratic run state government. So blue + 6 may be a bit optimistic. But its a blue state, and Blue + even 2 should be enough unless McCain really storms ahead of Obama nationally.

Revised Prediction: Obama by at least 6, but not more than 11.

5) North Carolina (15 evs, Red + 9!) I did not even list the Tar Heel state as a swing state the last go-round, predicting it would be red + 11! Oops. As of now, McCain is up 4.2 points in the NC polls, making it as of this moment Red + 6.7. Incredibly, two of these polls are ties! Obama hasn't given up on NC yet, and may not.

I went to school in NC and know something about it. I just can't see Obama pulling it off absent a big national win. NC has a good chunk of black voters, and a good chunk of aspirational whites, which is good. It also has a lot of somewhat racist downscale whites, which is real, real, real bad. And a lot of military voters, which is also bad. Right now its red + 6.7. Even if that drops to red + 4, Obama doesn't win it absent a clear national win, in which case he doesn't need it. Spending real time here strikes me as a serious blunder. But two TIED polls are real encouragement. NC is tied with unreachable Georgia as the biggest ev prize in the south (except Florida, which is a special case). And Virginia is right next door. I certainly understand the attraction. But getting NC down to red + 2 would be a huge achievement, and still probably wouldn't carry it if he REALLY needed it.

Revised Prediction: McCain by only 3. This would be a superhuman effort by Team Obama, which, of course, would net him zero electoral votes. Unless of course it helped in.....

6) Virginia (13 evs, Red + 5). I predicted that Va would be red + 1 in the November election. t is currently polling favoring McCain by .4, or red + 1.6. That's a HIT.

Virginia, loyal readers will recall, was one of my 2 hot new swing states for 2008 (Colorado the other). I'm pleased to say that this prediction (made before others predicted it, I might add) has been a smash hit. Oh sure, the pros knew they'd be competitive. But a state in the south that hasn't gone blue since 1964 being THIS competitive? Nope, the pros I read didn't think it would be. I did. As of now I am right, RIGHT RIGHT.

With Colorado (discussed below) looking good for Obama, Virginia and Ohio are ground zero for the 2008 election. Virginia! Virginia!

Where does VA go from here? I dunno. What I do know is that Obama will NOT abandon it! He will fight for VA until the bitter bitter end, and force McCain to do so. Watch the last 2-3 days of this campaign. Obama will spend part of at least one of them, if not MORE, in Virginia. This swing state is the real real deal. Remember, if Obama wins all of the Kerry states + Virginia + Iowa, he's sworn in. This is the emergency path I think Obama's advisers have in mind if McCain wins the popular vote. If Obama wins Virgina, and hold the big Kerry states, he'll win. Va. will be, as I predicted, HOTLY contested all the way.

Revised Prediction: Obama by 2.

7) Missouri: (11 evs, red + 4). I predicted that Missouri would be red + 6. As of now McCain is leading in the polls by 4.7, making Missouri red + 6.7 as of now. That would be, as they say in the biz, a WIN! I was right, Missouri is a good sized reddish tint. Its out of reach absent a big national win. I'd pull out of Missouri today. I think Obama has as good a chance in North Carolina, which has 4 more electoral votes. I think he has a better chance in Florida, to say nothing of Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. I don't know how hard Obama will fight for Missouri. He is highly unlikely to win it.

Revised Prediction: McCain by 4.

8A) Indiana (11 evs, red + 17!)

I didn't even discuss Indiana the first time around. It was, after all, red + 17, and is a notoriously red state. Indiana borders Obama's Illinois, however, and Obama has persistently polled well here. As of now, McCain is up by 2.3 in the polls, so Indiana is red + 4.3. That's not a ton. I just don't for a minute believe Obama can win Indiana absent a national landslide. But I've been wrong before.

Indiana is particularly odd when you consider that Obama is under polling my predicted blue bias in so many Midwestern states (see Pennsylvania, above, and Minnesota and Wisconsin below). Strange that Obama does (relatively) very well in Indiana, and not so (relatively) well in these states.

PREDICTION: Nope-- McCain wins it.

8) Minnesota: (10 evs, Blue + 3). I predicted Minnesota would be blue + 8. It is now polling at
Obama by 2.8, call it blue + 1. Yet ANOTHER big Midwestern as-of-now MISS. I'm sticking by my guns on Minnesota. I stand by my blue + a bunch prediction, and still do not believe it will be all that close, no matter the popular vote. The blue tint will reassert itself.

9) Wisconsin: (10 evs, blue + 3). I predicted Wisconsin would be blue + 5. Now polling at Obama + 3.2, or blue + 0.7. Yet another big underperformance by Obama in the midwest. Wonder what is going on here. If he fixes it and wins EITHER Virginia or Colorado, he wins. If he DOESN'T fix it he might well win anyway, but might not.

REVISED Prediction: Obama by 5.

10) Colorado (9 evs, Red + 2). I predicted Colorado would be BLUE + 2. It is at the moment polling at Obama + 4, or blue + 1.5. (*bows ostentatiously*). Yup, I nailed Colorado and Virginia perfectly as of the moment. Obama held the convention in Colorado, a brilliant move. He's up in almost every poll there. Its close, and any minor thing could blow this all up, but as of this instant, Obama stands to win Colorado's 9 precious evs. Florida or Ohio would be better, but you take any ev you can get, especially 9 of them. Of all the swing states on this list that voted for Bush (other than Iowa), I think Obama is most likely to win in Colorado. TONS of aspirational whites, very environmentally conscious, and he has always polled well here.

REVISED prediction-- Obama by 5.

11) Iowa (7 evs, blue + 2). I predicted Iowa would be Blue +5 (but was supremely confident Obama would win it). It is polling at Obama + 9.2, or blue + 7. Its in the bag because of the ethanol issue. McCan can't win here. Its done.

12) New Mexico (5 evs, blue + 2). I predicted New Mexico would be RED + 4. Oops. Its polling at Obama + 6, or blue + 4. Oops. I don't want to award Obama these evs just yet, as I am Iowa, but blue + 4 is a real effect. Narrow, but real. Obama has to be considered a favorite here.

Revised Prediction: Blue + 0.

13) Nevada: (5 evs, blue + 0). I predicted Nevada to be red + 4. It is polling at McCain + 1.7, or red + 3.5. Wow, got this one, as of now. Wish I could say it was my superior analytical skills. Really do. This state will go down to the wire.

Revised Prediction: I dunno.

14) New Hampshire: (4 evs, blue + 4). I predicted New Hampshire would be red + 1, owing not to its demographics (like say Florida or Missouri) but because of McCain's great popularity here. The polls have Obama up by 1.7 points, or red + 0. Close enough. New Hampshire will surely be razor close in a razor close election. I boldly predict that the winner of the popular vote, however narrow, will narrowly win New Hampshire's 4 evs. Any tie goes to Obama because New Hampshire is still in the northeast, where the GOP brand is the most damaged.