The political ramifications of health care reform passing


Here are the cliff notes. I think it will prove solidly beneficial to the democrats. If the economy behaves as I have predicted the effects will be felt by November, and the democrats will able to keep the losses under control. If the economy does not do as I've predicted, but instead is much weaker, who knows, but health care still helps.

Note that none of what I write below is at all dependent on the reforms becoming more popular between now and November, which may very well happen.  I doubt very seriously they will become less popular, and if they become more popular, the bump for Obama could be more than I estimate below.

As a very politically savvy friend of mine recently posted, "We'll see in November. Like just about every mid-year election, the party in power will lose some seats. Even so, the Democrats will continue to hold both houses of the legislature and the White House. Hopefully us Democrats will continue to govern as we were elected to do and pass the agenda we were elected to pass."

I couldn't agree more.

For specifics. Obama's #s will likely go up around 2-4 points in the short run, a small but still significant move. Much or all of this will be among democrats or at least Obama voters, who were growing steadily more disillusioned. I predict, and on this I'm not at all certain, that this bump will remain in place in November. The democrats running congress will also get a bump, but their favorability numbers are SO low that it barely matters. But in terms of the November elections, the bump for Obama matters hugely, far, far more than a modest 2-4 point bump would indicate. Here's why.

There is historically a strong correlation between the president's favorability numbers and the number of seats his party gains/loses in the midterms. Reagan in the high 30s in 1982. No Senate seats lost, but the GOP lost 27 House seats. Remember, democrats had the majority. Real shellacking. Clinton unpopular in November 1994. GOP wins huge, taking over both houses of Congress. 1998, Clinton popularish, economy booming, public upset about impeachment, democrats buck trend and gain seats. 2002, Bush wildly popular. GOP bucks historical trends, gains a few seats in the midterms. 2006 Bush quite unpopular, democrats win both houses. So in recent history, presidential popularity is very important in determining the outcome of midterm elections.

As of now Obama is around 45-47, not great, but not at the levels where you'd expect to see huge losses. But this number doesn't measure intensity-- it was ALL on the side of the GOP. That should change, and the change in intensity is the primary reason why health care reform is such a positive. Here's a breakdown of why I see the passage of health care reform as such a clear and significant positive for the democrats.

1) The democrats will benefit politically from passage of health care reform because it gives their voters some reason to go out and vote, rather than stay home.

This is the most significant reason, by far, that it helps Obama, totally dwarfing the rest of what I discuss.

If the midterm elections were held anytime before say last week, the democrats would have been wiped out, in an historic fashion, imho. I think they would have lost the House for certain, and likely the Senate too (despite holding a 9 seat advantage!) Why? Because the GOP voters are mad as hell, and they're going to turn out. Many independents are as well, and they're going to turn out. In contrast, the democratic voters, and independents aligned with democrats were disillusioned with the seemingly do nothing president/congress, and were inclined to stay home. That's how you end up with a GOP Senator from DEEP blue Massachusetts. Passage of health care reform (and the almost certain passage by the Senate of the House fixes) changes that somewhat. Now there is a distinct accomplishment that the democrats can use to get out their base. I actually think that decrease in the intensity gap would translate into fewer seats lost if the elections were held now. Possibly many fewer.

Thus if the democratic base is more motivated to go out and vote, the correlation between Obama's popularity and the outcome of the 2010 midterms should return to normal, or close. Thus if he's at the same 45-47 he's at now, for example, you'd predict significant losses, say 15-25 in the House and 3-6 in the Senate, but not historic losses, and the democrats would keep control of both houses.

2) The democrats will benefit politically because Obama is likely to be more popular.

With the linkage between presidential popularity and success in the midterms restored, at least in part, Obama's numbers become relevant again. I'm essentially 100% certain that the passage of health care reform (health insurance reform I should say, through gritted teeth) helps Obama. Not a lot, but a clear help. Here's why I know I'm right, and any contrary pundit is wrong.

A. The passage of health care won't hurt Obama much with Republicans-- he's already toast with them. After all, in the GOP base's wild fantasies, he wasn't born in America, isn't legitimate, might be muslim, and is a socialist! He's not one of us. How much less popular can you be? I suppose his numbers will tick down a point or 2 or 3, but 2 or 3 percent of say 25%, just isn't that much, less than one point overall. George W Bush has around a 75% favorability with the GOP base. Would you try and reason with such a group? If you have a crowd of people who think W was a good president-- well you can't really try and convince them of anything, they're just mentally out to lunch. You have to ignore them when governing, and hope the remaining 70-75% of the country sees things your way. That strategy worked nicely in 2008.

B. The passage of health care may help Obama with independents. It may not. I'm not sure, and don't have the time to puzzle it out. Its hard for me to see how it hurts with independents. After all, if he pushed for it so hard for so long he's a loser, as well as someone who wanted to (fill in the blank with your ridiculous parade of horrors). But since it passed, he's not such a loser, and of course none of the horribles this independent voter has heard about will have happened. Not a one. Instead, some will realize they've been lied to, on a grand scale. So why should this hypothetical independent voter like Obama any less? She hasn't been harmed. If I had to guess, I would guess his numbers tick up and stay up a few points among indys, but I'm not confident.

C. The passage of health care is 100% dead certain to help Obama with the democratic base, and not just a little. The democratic base is slightly larger than the shrunken GOP base, but less committed to the party. Before the bill passed, Obama was becoming seen as no accomplishment Obama, all talk and no action. Now there's some action. The health insurance reform polls fairly well among the democratic base. Sure a lot of us wanted a public option and much more, but we consider it a really good first step, as badly flawed as it is. Most democrats I know are happy about it. We sure as heck would have been pissed if he spent all this time and failed. The democratic base doesn't like a loser any more than anyone else.

So if health care only hurts a very little bit with GOP voters, helps significantly with democrats, and has an very mildly positive effect on independents, its effects are positive. Neutral if I'm wrong and it somehow hurts him among independents. To pick numbers out of the air, if it hurts him 2 points with GOP voters (25%), is neutral with independents (45%) and helps 8 points among democrats (30%) (yes, I think it could be that much), the harm with GOP voters would cost him about .5 points, and the help with democrats would benefit him by about 2.4 points, netting him 1.9 points of favorability rating. If you posit a 3 point bump among independent voters, which I think is reasonable, you'd add about 1.5 points, giving him about a 3.5 point bump. That sounds about right to me, and is what I think will happen. Predicting if that remains true until November is a fools errand. I will say that if it failed, the stench of a do nothing president and congress could have become very strong indeed and difficult to change in the public's mind.

D. Health insurance reform should also make passage of other key pieces of legislation, like financial services reform, more likely, by reaffirming that Barack and Nancy and Harry can get stuff done. This may also rebound to Obama's benefit, though I concede it may not.

Up to now the Republicans' game plan was to stop everything the Dems attempt. This is now much less likely to be successful, and if Obama and team donkey come to be seen as men and women of action, that could help.